Martyn Drakard | Friday, 11 January 2008

Kenya: test case for African democracy

Will Mwai Kibaki and his supporters allow their country's achievements to go up in smoke?
Mr and Mrs Kibaki at White House in 2003Kenya’s post-election violence and the subsequent humanitarian disaster have grabbed world headlines for almost two weeks. It was, after all, the Christmas holiday season and, apart from events in Pakistan, not a lot was happening. Then again, Nairobi is the vibrant communications hub for this part of Africa, which has facilitated excellent coverage of events. Most importantly, however, Kenya had been considered a focal point of peace and stability in the region and, it was hoped, a democracy in which the president could be voted out of power -- and go.

Polls showed that, although ruling president Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga were neck and neck in the presidential race, Odinga was the favourite. Yet, if Kibaki lost, it would be the first time in this part of Africa that an incumbent head of state had been voted out of power by the opposition. Political analysts in the West and the rest of Africa waited with bated breath.

Kenya is seen as being ahead of the rest of Africa in many ways, having had 45 years of comparative peace, and yet its vital example could be lost.

The rest is known. There is abundant evidence to show the presidential poll was rigged. Foreign diplomats have even said as much. As soon as signs of foul play were suspected, parts of the country erupted in violence, which quickly spread through the whole country except for the home area of the president and his trusted men, and that of the newly-appointed vice-president, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka. The official number of dead is given as 600, though the final figure will be much higher. At least 250,000 people are displaced, some 10,000 of them sheltering in the Catholic cathedral compound of Eldoret, a multi-ethnic farming area and home to many Kikuyu settlers. Thousands from the sprawling Nairobi slums are camped in parks and other open spaces waiting for food and medical supplies. The suffering of the displaced is somewhat mitigated by the dry, hot January weather.

The media have been asking: is this another African genocide? Since Rwanda’s one hundred days of slaughter in 1994, it is easy to label outbursts like this "tribal war" or "ethnic cleansing". These are harmful stereotypes. Rwanda’s case was very different: 99 per cent of the population consisted of two tribes -- the majority Hutu and the minority Tutsi, the latter culturally dominant thanks to the Belgian colonisers and resented by the Hutu. Hate messages broadcast over time prepared the way for massacre. Besides, Rwanda was poor and backward, and of no strategic importance to the super-powers.

Kenya has some 40 tribes, a dozen of them quite large. The different groups have spread out due to the high birth rate and intermarriage is becoming ever more common. The population is generally well educated and the younger generations less likely to think of themselves in tribal terms. Tribal differences, perceptions and prejudices do exist, as happens between any two European nations you can name, but it is unlikely the current troubles will turn into a full-scale civil war.

Why has much of the country reacted so forcefully, making thousands of families of the "winning” Kikuyu side flee for dear life? People wanted a change; instead, they were short-changed. They saw victory within their grasp, only to have it stolen from them brazenly and in broad daylight. The people who stole their victory were the very same ones they had become increasingly unhappy with, and who proceeded to give their theft the appearance of spotless legality.

Dissatisfaction had been simmering, stoked by a litany grievances: unfulfilled electoral promises; unpunished instances of grand larceny and corruption on a monumental scale; huge social problems unaddressed, except by the faith-based groups and some more reliable NGOs; a worsening of poverty in the urban slums and the poorer rural areas, despite the touted 6 per cent annual GDP increase; official arrogance and rulers quite out of touch with the needs of the ordinary man, woman and child. Father Daniele Moschetti, a Comboni missionary who has worked for 15 years in Korogocho, one of Nairobi’s toughest slums, has called it the "war of the poor”. The writer-journalist, Michela Wrong, agrees that rather than an ethnic clash, it is privilege opposed to oppression, the rich-poor divide. 

Kenya is strategically important -- to the United States, for example, in its fight against al-Qaeda. It has good communications, a robust economy and good relations with East, West and the rest of Africa. The coastal port of Mombasa is the gateway for all goods moving into the land-locked countries of the interior, such as Uganda, southern Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern Congo. Oil has been discovered in western Uganda; eastern Congo is mineral-rich. Kenya cannot be allowed to go up in flames.

This may explain why four past African presidents, Chissano (Mozambique), Mkapa (Tanzania), Kaunda (Zambia), and Masire (Botswana) have been in the country seeing the current situation for themselves and speaking with political leaders. The chairman of the African Union, President John Kofuor of Ghana, has spoken to Kibaki and Odinga, separately, and not together, as he had hoped. The US sent in their top African diplomat, Jendayi Frazer. This flurry of diplomatic activity is in stark contrast to what happened in Rwanda, where everyone was intent on saving his own skin.

Kenya’s case is crucial for Africa. If Kibaki's regime digs in its heels and gets away with it, there will be more justification for other African presidents to follow suit. Kenya is seen as being ahead of the rest of Africa in many ways, having had 45 years of comparative peace, and yet its vital example could be lost. That is why younger Kikuyus, the tribesmen of Kibaki, those who are doing well for themselves, have urged him to "rethink his position”. They blame him for turning the rest of the country against their ethnic group. This split in the ranks is in itself an interesting development.

Politically the country is at an impasse. Kibaki refuses to step down. The opposition will not recognize him as president. Attitudes have hardened. It is only fair there should be a re-run of the presidential election, preferably once tempers have cooled, but with the intransigent lieutenants Kibaki has surrounded himself with, this will be little short of a miracle.

Now is a critical, delicate moment in the history of Kenya, and for the future of democracy in Africa.

Martyn Drakard writes from Kampala, Uganda.

Comments (13)

Kizito Namulanda said...

I wholeheartedly agree with the article. As a Kenyan in the ‘diaspora’, I have followed the events at home with a keen and worried ear. It does not seem possible that an election will be re-run at all. Though the election was massively rigged,along with a judiciary and electoral commission that is not independent, the growing specter of a quarter million refugees and a grim ever revised tally of dead and missing, calls into question whether mass peaceful rallies around the country by the opposition, which will turn into violent confrontations with a de-facto-police-state will help resolve the current tense situation.

United States | Saturday, 12 January 2008 at 1:24 am

charles nixon said...

Our sympathies are with the good people of Kenya. Would that men & women would turn away from violence as a means of achieving their political goals.

Charles+

-- | Saturday, 12 January 2008 at 1:59 pm

Andrew said...

As much as a re-run would be fair and perhaps the way to go, consider however that this may not be possible soon.  3 months would be too soon.  Why?  Because 250,000 people are displaced.  For most of them - such as the Kikuyu from Eldoret, and the people who chased them out - they most certainly will not be returning soon if at all to their previous voting ‘stations’.  That would mean re-registration.  The ECK is in no less chaos such that even the machinery for re-registration is stalled.

Kenya | Saturday, 12 January 2008 at 5:30 pm

Patricio Rojas said...

Thanks for a great article about a sad situation.
My prays are with the Kenyan people, especially those who are working hard to create a better country, with opportunities for everyone.

Patricio

Chile | Saturday, 12 January 2008 at 11:40 pm

A Oriku said...

I appreciate it when when Patricio says his prayers are with the Kenyan people. But what Kenyans, and by extention Africans, need are not prayers nor any sort of ‘spiritual’ mummery, carried out either by themselves or vicariously. While I do understand that ‘prayer’ may be taken in its metaphorical sense, I think what we need is a more pragmatic and realistic (and I daresay secular)solution to our problems. I doubt whether any people pray and believe in the potency of prayer as Africans do, but see where all the misplaced religiosity has landed the continent. I have always told my friends that endemic religion - particularly the newfangled evangelical type - is one of the things that has made the continent retrograde.

United Kingdom | Sunday, 13 January 2008 at 8:53 am

Christine said...

Thank you for your very objective view of the situation back in Kenya. I think a re election with international observers is the only way to resolve this stalemate, as it will hopefully give the whole process the transparency that will make the Kenyan people accept the results. I do agree however that three months would be too short a time to organise the re election because of the displaced people.

United Kingdom | Sunday, 13 January 2008 at 9:27 am

Stella K said...

Thanks for the above article but would like to highlight the following facts.

Kenya consists of 8 provinces and Naiorbi, Rift valley, Nyanza and the coast were the only provinces affected by the post election violence. 

We do not know to date who won the elections - whether it is President Mwai Kibaki or Raila.  Speculations from the both the local and the international press does not help the situation and I would urge all to restrain from doing this.

It is my humble opinion that regardless of who won the elections - we would still have experienced what we are experiencing today.  The coast and Rift valley have always experienced problems during elections and during this particular campaing many leaders used ‘majimbo’ as a campaign issue and what we are seeing today is the people’s understanding of ‘majimbo’

We as Kenyan who are living in Kenya now appreciate that a lot of what we are seeing has nothing to do with the elections - and what we need right now is the courage to look deep within us and address the issues that are the root cause of this.  Kenya is bigger than these two men and we need to move on with our lives - with either or neither of them as our president

God bless

Kenya | Monday, 14 January 2008 at 2:03 am

Gavin Obrien said...

Sadly I have to agree with your correspondent.It is to be hoped that a sense of nationhood rather than group mentality will prevail and that Kenya will be able to resolve this issue peacefully. The wealth divide that seems to be fuelling this crisis in part should be a warning to the rest of humanity that we need to ensure that all are able to share in the world’s prosperity equally.
Politically, those in power always find it so very hard to let go...even here in Australia as we saw recently.At least our change of government was peaceful.,We too can learn from these events.
Gavin
Canberra

Australia | Monday, 14 January 2008 at 10:09 am

Patricia Lulu said...

What a biased article. That the author chooses to blame the government for the mess in this country is a lack of objectivity yet to be paralleled. From my point of view both sides are to blame for the mess especially since both of them rigged this elections and if you ask me Raila started it off. The idea was to make sure that the Nyanza votes trickle in fast to make the country think he was winning and give him an edge so that Kibaki loses credibility even if he won and then raise a furore. Turn out in some of the Nyanza constituencies like Rarieda was over 120%. We are not hoodwinked by ODM. It was just a question of who did the rigging best.

I am also sick & tired of people telling Kibaki to be a gentleman and step down. Why should Raila himself not be a gentleman and accept defeat, forge peace and try for 2012? He and Ruto have worked so hard to ensure that PNU supporters in Eldoret are killed in large numbers, shipping truck loads of armed Pokot people daily to the town to torch down houses and kill PNU supporters - and if i may ask the question, what is Kibaki supposed to do if Raila declines to dialogue? Opting for mediators is trying to equate us with Ivory Coast which Raila should know we are not. And i don’t forget his threats to turn us into another Ivory Coast? No one can convince me that ODM has the good of this country at heart. I have seen them at work, i have seen Najib Balala demonstrating with people who went on to loot.

If they had the good of this country at heart they should have had recourse to the courts and urged people to be peaceful. If that had happened i would have changed to an ODM supporter. I think the author of the article needs to do more research and give a more balanced view of what is going on in Kenya and also tackle it from a ethical point of view.

Kenya | Monday, 14 January 2008 at 5:25 pm

SAMUEL NJOROGE WAWERU said...

I’m a Kenyan man aged 31 and i’m a victim of post election violence that has erupted in Kenya since the massively rigged General Elections, the crisis is taking the dimenisions of a civil war, i’m suffering miserably, i’m healing my body burns that i incured when my house caught fire , my wife was beaten very badly for being a Luo by tribe, she’s virtually disabled now, i’m a Kikuyu by tribe and our house was burnT by my fellow kikuyus who were angry that the 41 tribes have turned against kikuyus and they wanted my wife to pay for the spilled kikuyu blood, we’re now desitute, we’ve no food, no clothes besides the ones we’re wearing, i’m requesting for Catholics every where in the world to help us with food and clothes because we’re displaced, our children twins are aged 4 months, i can be reached by calling this number 254- 0725776785

Kenya | Monday, 14 January 2008 at 5:51 pm

Nwachukwu Egbunike said...

What a sad situation. I have friends who are Kenyans and have always prided themselves with the relative peace in their country. Now that seem to be destroyed because of the selfishness of leaders who want to sit tight forever. Nigeria suffered a civil war, we have seen destruction, death and all that goes with it. Although my generation was spared the agony, however it’s a ghost that is yet to be buried. In spite of this most of our leaders are yet to learn, they want to rule forever. That we have not yet witnessed a disaster of similar proportions again is mainly due to divine providence. I pity Kenyans who certainly don’t deserve this mess. I pray with other like minds that this carnage stops!

Nigeria | Tuesday, 15 January 2008 at 5:17 am

Samson said...

I have read your article and wish to make the following comments, some of which have been made but which I reiterate:
1. I do not think that the observers have given the verdict as to whether the presidential poll was rigged. I believe all they did was to point out some irregularities with both sides implicated. You seem to work on the premise that the election was rigged in favor of the incumbent president
2. I am not sure it helps to liken the situation in Kenya to the Rwanda genocide as I believe tensions are so high and such statements do not diffuse but rather aggravate ethnic tension
3. You say ‘people wanted change and were short changed… Please note that on the other side of the divide are people too
4. Also dangerous and perhaps inaccurate are references to the situation being a struggle of the rich and poor. We know from history what such inferences to class struggle can cause…
5. Your evaluation of the situation appears to be one sided, the government’s shortcomings are many but is the opposition the saint/victim?
6. You propose a presidential re-run, think of the cost, the current state of affairs, the likelihood of another eruption of violence...Is this the best way?
I live in Kenya and I think most Kenyans are very tired of the blame games and the media’s coverage and perpetuation of the same. Kenya is bleeding please help cure don’t gloat over the wound and keep pointing fingers as to the cause. I turned to your article looking forward to a message of hope that will help us get over the trauma but alas!

Kenya | Tuesday, 15 January 2008 at 6:10 pm

charles nixon said...

Thank you for your letter, Samson. Charles+

Canada | Wednesday, 16 January 2008 at 8:27 am

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