THURSDAY, 18 SEPTEMBER 2014

How to pay for an ageing Japan?

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If the population structure of many western societies is changing then the existing economic and welfare supports in place may need to also change. As we get further into the twenty-first century and as many nation’s populations get more top heavy, can these nations still afford the same public health and pension schemes? After all, there will be a greater demand for these services and a smaller pool of taxpayers to pay for it.

In many respects, the world is looking at Japan for answers to cope with ageing populations as Japan is considered a forerunner in having to deal with such matters. As Nathan Lewis at Forbes notes:

“In 1989, 11.6% of the population of Japan was over 65. In 2006, it hit 20%. In 2055, it is expected to reach 38%.”

The trouble is that the programs put in place to take care of the elderly in… click here to read whole article and make comments


 

TUESDAY, 16 SEPTEMBER 2014

Singles majority of adult population in USA

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Are you in the USA and looking for love? Well according to Bloomberg, the next person you meet in the USA over the age of 16 is more likely than not to be single. This is the first time that the proportion of the US population over the age of 16 is single since such records have been kept (beginning in 1976).

“Some 124.6 million Americans were single in August, 50.2 percent of those who were 16 years or older, according to data used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its monthly job-market report. That percentage had been hovering just below 50 percent since about the beginning of 2013 before edging above it in July and August. In 1976, it was 37.4 percent and has been trending upward since.”

How is this majority of the adult population who are single broken down? Well, about 3 out of 10… click here to read whole article and make comments


 

MONDAY, 15 SEPTEMBER 2014

An aging prison population poses problems

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Prisons around the world are fast finding that they need to learn to deal with older inmates – one more societal institution to be affected by the aging population.  A recently released study undertaken by the Urban Institute found that the number of prisoners aged 50 or older in prison in America increased by 330% from 1994 to 2011.  An even steeper growth curve is expected in the coming years.  By 2019 the report estimates that the proportion of older prisoners will have risen to 28%.

Exacerbating the problem, prisoners are particularly at risk of accelerated aging and deterioration of health due to the impact of living in a prison environment, along with other demographical factors, which means that their physiological age may be up to 15 years greater than their actual age.

This is of concern not only because it is much more expensive for society to ‘keep’ older inmates (double… click here to read whole article and make comments


 

THURSDAY, 11 SEPTEMBER 2014

Burma’s Census Results

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The numbers from Burma’s first census in more than 30 years are coming out and the result is a drastic revision of that country’s population.  For many years, according to Foreign Policy, the country’s military dictatorship had estimated that the population was about 60 million people. Well it turns out that that was an overly generous estimation: by 9 million people.  Instead of 60 million, it turns out that there are only 51 million people living in Burma.  So why was the estimate so wrong? For one, it has been hard to get accurate data out of the country:

“Between independence in 1948 and this year's census, the country formerly known as Burma had only tried counting its entire population twice: in 1973 and 1983. In general, accurate demographic information has been hard to come by in a country that was largely closed off under military dictatorship until 2011.”

click here to read whole article and make comments

 

TUESDAY, 9 SEPTEMBER 2014

The highest abortion rate in Asia

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Vietnam has one of the highest abortion rates in the world.  According to Aljazeera, the proportion of pregnancies that end in the deliberate killing of the foetus is close to half in the South East Asian nation:

“Today, despite having greater access to contraception and reproductive health services, abortion rates in Vietnam are the highest in Asia and among the highest in the world.

According to doctors from Hanoi's Central Obstetrics Hospital, who presented a report last May at the Franco-Vietnam Gynaecology and Obstetrics Conference, 40 percent of all pregnancies in Vietnam are terminated each year.

Abortions in the first 22 weeks are still legal, affordable and available upon request at public hospitals and private health facilities across the country. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Compendium of Research on Reproductive Health in Vietnam, two-thirds of terminations in Vietnam today are a result of unwanted… click here to read whole article and make comments


 

MONDAY, 8 SEPTEMBER 2014

Dubai: a city over-run by males?

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Dubai’s gender imbalance is ‘unnatural’ according to a report released last week by the Dubai Statistics Centre.  The statistics show that 75.77% of Dubai’s population of approximately 2.2 million are men, and just 24.23% are women - second only to Qatar who has a higher gender imbalance still. 

Fortunately this isn’t a result of sex selection, but a huge transient expatriate-based workforce – one of the largest in the world. Statistics also show that two-thirds of the population is between the ages of 20-39. This makes a nice change from much of the rest of the world where the percentage of people in the young workforce is falling dramatically.  However, it still makes one wonder what family life - or the lack of it - is like in a country so dominated by working age men who are not accompanied by family members. 

The unique qualities women bring to society must be in… click here to read whole article and make comments


 

FRIDAY, 5 SEPTEMBER 2014

Does UK Labour have a UKIP problem?

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Matthew Goodwin, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham, has published a very interesting piece in the Financial Times about the rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) as a fourth national party in the UK.  The article draws heavily from his book entitled Revolt on the Right and argues that UKIP may not only split the right vote with the Conservatives but may also be appealing to traditional Labour voters.

“The events in Clacton [where the Conservative MP Douglas Carswell defected to UKIP] will be seen by many as validating one of the oldest myths about Ukip; that it is nothing more than a second home for disgruntled Conservatives. Mr Carswell’s defection will be especially welcomed on the left, where many argue Ukip is dividing the right and clearing the path for Labour’s return to power in 2015. This is… click here to read whole article and make comments


 

WEDNESDAY, 3 SEPTEMBER 2014

South Koreans to become extinct by 2750

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South Koreans will be extinct by 2750 if nothing is done to stop the nation's falling fertility rate, according to a recently released study by The National Assembly Research Service in Seoul.  The study found that the Korean fertility rate declined to a new low of 1.19 children per woman in 2013, well below the rate required to replace the current population of 50 million.  

According to the study projections, Korea's population will fall to 40 million in 2056 and to 20 million in 2100. By 2200, the population is projected to have decreased to three million and to only one million by 2256, gradually becoming extinct over the next 500 years.  Of course, such predictions assume that current Korean policy and practice remains the same which it likely wouldn't once these projections started to become apparent.  Before then, South Korea could make changes to its immigration policy, support the family… click here to read whole article and make comments


 

TUESDAY, 2 SEPTEMBER 2014

No more people please: Beijing

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Beijing’s population is growing. Quickly.  Beijing has doubled in population within 25 years. From 2000 to December 2013 the population grew by 53 percent.  It is now home to 21.1 million people and to the problems that so many people together can bring: roads clogged with traffic; smog making the air hard to breath; poor quality housing.  So what do the local Communist authorities want to do to remedy this situation and to prevent Beijing from expanding any further? According to Bloomberg, they want to turn people away:

“What would Beijing be like with more than twice as many people?

It’s a dystopian scenario tormenting Mayor Wang Anshun and local Communist Party chief Guo Jinlong as they plow ahead with a mission impossible: turning people away…Instead, Mayor Wang, 56, who was acting mayor from July 2012 and officially took the role in January 2013, has banned the sub-division of apartments,… click here to read whole article and make comments


 

FRIDAY, 29 AUGUST 2014

What you can tell about a country’s future by looking at its gender balance

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The human sex ratio, which is usually defined in terms of the number of males per 100 females, varies greatly between countries and regions. The biological norm is for the sex ratio at birth to be about 105 more or less everywhere – meaning just over 51% of births are boys and just under 49% are girls.

But with equal care and feeding, females die less quickly. It is therefore not surprising that the sex ratio of the population as a whole in the West and in many other regions leans in favour of women. In the UK this ratio is 99; in the US, 97; and in the EU, 96. In sub-Saharan Africa, where life expectancy at birth for is relatively low for both sexes, the ratio is 99. In Russia, Ukraine and some former Eastern bloc countries, it is among the lowest in the world: 86 for both Russia and Ukraine.

click here to read whole article and make comments


 

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Welcome to Demography Is Destiny. We launched this to counter two media memes: that humans are a cancer which is destroying our planet and that world population is spiralling to unsustainable levels. The real story is that intelligent and inventive human will rise to the challenge of climate change and that our real problem is the coming demographic winter. The editors of Demography is Destiny are Marcus and Shannon Roberts, who live in Auckland, New Zealand. Send them your comments and suggestions. 


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