I thought today that I would follow up Shannon’s blogpost from last week about China’s demographic decline.  This piece from the Economist shows that the inexorable rise of the Dragon will be hindered by its demographic Achilles heel.  According to the UN medium variant population projection, China’s population will dip to below 1.3 billion in 2050 (assuming that its very low fertility rate starts to recover).  However, if its fertility rate remains at about 1.5-1.6 children per women then China will have less than 1 billion people in 2060.  Thus, China can no longer be considered the factory of the world – its workforce will actually start to shrink in absolute terms after 2013.  If China wants to continue to supply its hungry factories with hands then it will need to look offshore for workers. Who knows what problems large scale immigration will bring to China,… click here to read whole article and make comments

According to a new report from University College London “older people are a benefit, rather than a burden, to the economy and society”.  Active Ageing: Live Longer and Prosper, the report published by the UCL School of Pharmacy, claims that the benefits of living longer will outweigh the additional health and social care costs of population ageing.  This is a fascinating claim and certainly runs counter to what we’ve been hearing over the past few months (and counter to what we’ve been reporting on this blog too!)

I haven’t been able to locate the full report after a quick Google and look around the UCL website, so can only evaluate the public pronouncements made by the report’s authors in the media.  Some of these comments are not contentious and barely worth a media release:

“‘All too often old age is… click here to read whole article and make comments

What do you know about Paul Ehrlich? If you're anything like me, probably not a lot more than the following: in 1968 he published a book called the Population Bomb.  It was kind of big deal. A big, alarmist, deal. Now, he's back in the media (read Guardian) and has obviously re-invented himself as a stand-up comedian.  Some of his funniest jokes were leaked to the Guardian:

“The world's most renowned population analyst has called for a massive reduction in the number of humans and for natural resources to be redistributed from the rich to the poor.”

Hmmm, of course the easiest way to cut this Gordian knot is to eliminate the poor – thus you kill two birds with one stone.  Further on in the article:

“The optimum population of Earth – enough to guarantee the minimal physical ingredients of a decent life to… click here to read whole article and make comments

Many are predicting that China’s economy is set to take over the world.  According to the IMF China will overtake America as the world’s largest economy in 2017.  However, before we start looking to China as the next world superpower, the country’s dire demographic outlook needs to be taken account of.  It will almost certainly hold the country back.  Yet, despite this, unnatural government restrictions on childbirth persist.

This month The Economist published on its website a very interesting discussion between its China and Globalisation editors, who warn that “China will get old before it gets rich”.  The interview highlights the problem of the rapidly falling fertility rates in many countries around the world, and gives a good explanation of why demography really is destiny.  It is worth a look and you can view the clip here.

In China the demographic problem… click here to read whole article and make comments

In the NY Times recently, there was a story about Nigeria’s ongoing population explosion and the terrible consequences that are flowing from it.  According to the headlines, Nigeria is being “tested” by its rapid population growth and it is seen as a “preview of an overcrowded planet”.   This population explosion will see Nigeria grow to 300 million people in the next quarter-century and this is, according to the NY Times, a bad thing.  It will further depress living standards, put pressure on infrastructure, hospitals, schools, housing, increase unemployment and drive these unemployed youths into the arms of the radical Islamist group Boko Haram.  That’s not all though – a rising Nigerian population won’t just affect some country over there that most of us can’t place… click here to read whole article and make comments

Another mainstream newspaper from the UK, this time the Telegraph, has put the problem of an ageing, declining population into the spotlight.  A couple of weeks ago the NYTimes and the Guardian did the same thing, so hopefully we will see more and more of this type of story in the MSM.  This is good as it will help to balance the zeitgeist that the only population story out there is one of overpopulation doom and gloom. 

Daniel Knowles’ article very clearly does not fit in with this story. His headline gives you a clear indication that he is going to beat a drum that is very familiar to readers of this blog: “If… click here to read whole article and make comments

During the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, France and Germany were Great Power rivals.  Their rivalry often led to conflict.  In the early nineteenth century, Napoleon led French armies through Germany repeatedly, dismantled the Holy Roman Empire, defeated the Austrians and Prussians, and was finally defeated by them in turn (most famously at the Battle of the Nations and (in part) by Blücher at the Battle of Waterloo).  Sixty years later France was defeated by Prussia… click here to read whole article and make comments

The Press reported recently that perhaps God is not so dead in New Zealand after all.  Victoria University's religious studies professor Paul Morris considers there to be evidence of a growing religious revival among young people in the country.  This comes after a United States study listed New Zealand as one of the nine countries in the world where religion will all but die last year. 

It is true that latest New Zealand census figures (2006) show that the number of people ticking the “no religion” box is increasing: 1.3 million people, or 34.7 per cent, had no religious affiliation in 2006, up from 1 million, or 29.6 per cent, in 2001.

However, there are apparently growing numbers of young people who are very committed to their faith, despite smaller numbers than in the… click here to read whole article and make comments

It makes sense that with an aging baby boomer population the effects of aging will also increase over the coming decades.  So it doesn’t come as too much of a surprise that the World Health Organisation (“WHO”) expects cases of people living with dementia to triple worldwide by 2050. 

Worldwide, nearly 35.6 million people live with dementia currently.  In its first substantial report on the issue: Dementia: a public health priority, WHO predicts that number will double by 2030 to 65.7 million and more than triple by 2050 to 115.4 million. Alzheimer's disease is the most common cause of dementia, but the term covers a a number of progressive disorders that affect memory, thinking, behaviour and the ability to perform everyday activities.

With only eight countries worldwide with national programmes… click here to read whole article and make comments

Today I thought I’d give you something to think about over the Easter break while you’re travelling to be with family, waiting for the Easter Bunny or creeping to the Cross. (Here in New Zealand we get Good Friday and Easter Monday off work – it’s the last public holiday for ages…well, actually two weeks ...anyway… )

More and more we are seeing in the news a recognition that the world is not going to continue in the same manner as it has for the last 50 years or so. We can no longer rely on an increasing young population to support the smaller previous generation in old age and continue to grow the economy.  The latest example of policy makers trying to come to terms with this changing demographic landscape is from Canada.  According to the Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, Jean Boivin,… click here to read whole article and make comments