We have mentioned before rumblings about the Chinese government’s one child policy emanating from Guangdong province. 

The Economist has recently run a feature article on this story which provides a few more details.   What is interesting about this story is that:

“Until recently most discussion in China has been confined to academic demographers…This month the debate became political. A provincial official went public with a request to let Guangdong — China’s most populous province, with 104m people — loosen the rules. Speaking to newspapers, Zhang Feng, director of Guangdong’s Population and Family Planning Commission, said he had applied for “approval to be the leader in the country in the relaxation of the family-planning policy”.”

It is not the call for the relaxation of the rules itself, which… click here to read whole article and make comments

In my last post I discussed an article published in the New York Times written by Chrystia Freeland.  

That article argued that demographic decline is the cause of much of the West’s economic problems. There are not enough young people to support the country’s economic burden as more and more people reach the age of retirement.

Freeland’s article did not impress Dean Baker, the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.  He wrote a response to her argument in the Business Insider. 

According to Baker, the “fundamental problem” that is facing both the US and the European countries is not anything to do with age, but instead:

“…is the lack of sufficient demand to fully employ their workers and their productive capacity. There are few economists… click here to read whole article and make comments

The world’s economies, especially in the West seem to be in somewhat of a bind. The markets around the world are currently in a slide; Europe is worried about Spain and Italy; the USA has had its credit rating downgraded by S&P for the first time in its history.  It is therefore an appropriate time for the New York Times to publish an article by Chrystia Freeland, the global editor at large of Reuters, that argues that the world’s economic woes can be linked back to the fact that the West is getting old. 

“The heart of the problem is arithmetical: The post-World War II social welfare state, created at a moment when the baby boom was still gestating, is built on a generational Ponzi scheme. As life expectancy increases and fertility declines, that population pyramid… click here to read whole article and make comments

The International Association for Official Statistics (IAOS) biennial conference this month is on "The Demography of Ageing and Official Statistics". The conference will include discussion of the extent and characteristics of population ageing and its impact on all aspects of social and economic policy across the world, and will be held in Belfast, Northern Ireland on 17-19 August 2011. 

The choice of topic attests to the importance of the demographic issues facing the world and those to be discussed give an interesting overview of the most prominent areas of concern.  Notable speakers include Dr Richard Suzman (US National Institute on Aging), Dr Wan He (US Census Bureau), Professor David Coleman (Oxford University), and Dr George Leeson (Oxford Institute of Ageing, University of Oxford). Key global issues to be discussed include the following:

- Dr. Bercovich, President of the Brazilian Institute of… click here to read whole article and make comments

As India steps further towards the centre of the world’s economic stage, the Economist has published a lengthy feature story about the need for further economic reform to consolidate the country’s remarkable economic rise over the last two decades. The article as a whole is well worth a read as it is very informative, but I want to draw your attention to the parts of the article concerning demography. 

In June a deputy governor of the central bank predicted that the country’s economy would grow at a double-digit rate during the next 20-30 years. [(!)] India has the potential for such a feat, with its vast and growing labour force and now famous entrepreneurial spirit…(emphasis added)

The fact is that India’s growing population has helped its rapid rise economically. This… click here to read whole article and make comments

There have been some noises coming out of China recently that the one child policy, introduced in 1979 to curb population growth, is on the way out. Maybe not right away, but soon.

First, from The Australian newspaper,  there is a story of an unnamed official from China’s most populous province, Guandong (in southern China).  This official is making it known that Guandong has asked Beijing to allow couples where just one parent is an only child to have a second baby.  I can understand the official’s reticence, but the fact that he or she is prepared to come out in the Western media to say such things perhaps gives an indication of the depth of feeling about this issue? After all, I can imagine that implicitly criticising a current communist government policy to the media is not… click here to read whole article and make comments

Last week I mentioned that the number of centenarians is predicted to increase to over one million in five different countries by 2100.   I thought that this was, in part at least, a testimony to better medical practices and aged care in many parts of the world. 

Along similar lines, in terms of speaking of better medical practice – an interesting study was published earlier this year discussing the marked decline in HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe. In 1997, the estimated adult prevalence of HIV was 29% per cent of the population. Only a decade later, in 2007, this prevalence had almost been halved – to 16% estimated adult prevalence.  The study, entitled “A Surprising Prevention Success: Why Did the HIV Epidemic Decline in Zimbabwe?”, concluded that it was behavioural changes – specifically reductions in… click here to read whole article and make comments

Hanging out for a fast car to keep up with Jones’?  Research by Dr Thomas J. Stanley suggests that those flashy Jones’ may not really be that wealthy – at least not in the United States.  

There were 6.7 million U.S. households with a net worth of at least $1 million at the end of 2009 according to the Spectrum Group, as reported by Reuters. However, surprisingly, this group are not big spenders.  Apparently modesty is still very much alive and well.

Alexander Green, an investment advisor and a writer for the Wall Street Journal for many years who has just released the book Beyond Wealth: The Road Map to a Rich Life, reports that:

According to Dr Stanley’s research most millionaires – individuals with a net worth of $1… click here to read whole article and make comments

According to the Economist (drawing on UN data), by the year 2100 there will be five countries that will each have one million centenarians. These five countries are China, which is predicted to reach the milestone in 2069, the United States in 2073, Japan in 2075, India in 2084 and Brazil in 2100. These predictions are a tribute to better medical practice and the increase in our ability to keep people alive for longer.

Let us hope that our societies (which is NOT JUST the government, but also every one of us as individuals – yes, we also have responsibilities to go with our myriad of rights) provide the best possible care for the very old. This sort of thing should never happen. Perhaps as certain societies age, there might be a move toward more elderly spending… click here to read whole article and make comments