April
10th
  1:39:15 PM

Population will stabilise by 2050 According to Physics

 

The following report is very interesting and news-worthy but not making the news anywhere, of course. According to RedOrbit, a research team at the Autonomous University of Madrid has predicted that the population of our planet will stabilize around 2050.  This was based upon global population data from 1900 to 2010 and a model “normally used by physicists”. (This sounds scientific and therefore, as we all know, it must be true). RedOrbit continues:

"[The researches team’s] results, published in the journal Simulation, coincide with the United Nation’s (UN) downward forecasts. The UN estimates that the global population in 2100 will be somewhere between the highest estimate of 15.8 billion (high fertility variant) and the lowest estimate of 6.2 billion (low fertility variant). The low estimate is below the current population of 7 billion. The team of researchers from UAM and the CEU-San Pablo University developed a mathematical model that confirms the lower estimate. Additionally, their model predicts a standstill and even a slight drop in global population by the mid-21st century. The UN provided population prospects between 1950 and 2100. The team combined these with mathematical equations used in fields such as condensed matter physics to create their model.”

The team noted how originally the data showed the Earth’s birth rate and mortality rate to be high (early twentieth century) and then after 1950, the mortality rate fell sharply “as a result of advances in healthcare and increased life expectancy”. Then, it seemed as if the world would be doomed by an never-ending increasing population (*cough* Paul Ehrlich *cough*)  but instead, there was a steep drop off in the number of children being born worldwide.  As the research team’s findings show:

“The model’s data also reflects the downward trend in the UN’s series of prospects. ‘Overpopulation was a spectre in the 1960s and 70s but historically the UN’s low fertility variant forecasts have been fulfilled,’ Muñoz highlighted. Earlier predictions, as recently as 1992, predicted a global population of 7.17 billion people by 2010. The actual population in 2010 was 6.8 billion. There has been a 40 percent decline in the fertility rate since 1950. ‘This work is another aspect to be taken into consideration in the debate, although we do not deal with the significant economic, demographic and political consequences that the stabilization and ageing of the world population could entail,’ the researcher concluded.”

This is a scientific model that has huge implications for the future of the world and our societies. Why aren’t we hearing more about it? Why aren’t there numerous UN panels set up to tell us about the impending problem and what we must do about it? Is it because the researchers left out the vitally important point: a hockey stick curve pointing ominously upwards? You can hear the researchers now: “Bother, I knew we forgot something!”



to make a comment, click here


 
about this blog | Bookmark and Share

Search this blog

 Subscribe to Demography is Destiny
rss RSS feed of posts

 Recent Posts
Are we ready for the “grey tsunami”?
22 Apr 2014
Iran leads Muslim countries in fertility decline
20 Apr 2014
Russia: Growing and More Assertive
14 Apr 2014
Japan’s Shrinking Role in the World
8 Apr 2014
Why you shouldn’t take alarmist population predictions seriously
6 Apr 2014

 MercatorNet blogs
Style and culture: Tiger Print
Family social policy: Family Edge
US political scene: Sheila Liaugminas
News about bioethics: BioEdge
From the editors: Conniptions

 Archive
Apr 2014 | Mar 2014 | Feb 2014 | Jan 2014 | more >>

 From MercatorNet's home page

In a world of family change, how are children faring?
19 Apr 2014
A new report provides a unique global picture of family factors affecting child well-being.

Could we choose to dialogue?
17 Apr 2014
"Anti-choice", "pro-abortion" -- let's stop the name calling and talk about principles.

Disparate bedfellows: same-sex marriage and human rights
17 Apr 2014
The claim that same-sex marriage is a basic human right finds no support in international human rights declarations.

Philippines population control law gets judicial green light
16 Apr 2014
A so-called reproductive health law is “not unconstitutional” says the Supreme Court. But the new contraceptive era could easily become…

Do you want CNN or ESPN with that burger?
15 Apr 2014
Why can't I talk with you in a restaurant? Why do I have to talk to the TV?


 Tags
young adults, Egypt, Japan tsunami, USA, Older Mothers, global hunger, slums, Save the Children, bankruptcy, media spin, Al Gore, overpopulation fiction, Ehrlich, skills shortage, labor shortages, Olympics, Lithuania, Deaths, Twins, Christmas, birth rate, consumers, Uganda, Population Association of America, values, Birth Defects, Baby Roberts, suffering, social unrest, world hunger, morocco, Population Research Institute, recession, Prince Charles, sexual abuse, superbugs, Gates Foundation, Bulgaria, Sterilisation, Famine, Romania, Pakistan, Brain Drain, online shopping, New Forests Company, youth bulge, Food wastage, Poland, population growth, National Identity, sacrifice, food production, International, Vietnam, Intelligence, Urbanisation, economic growth, Children, Beneficiaries, malthus, media, human rights, adoption, Africa, Romney campaign, tourism, Christianity, deaths, One Child Policy, birthrate, Belfast, Fertility Rate, gender imbalance, birth rates, mobile phones, life expectancy, Contraception, Housing, society, The Economist, investment, Uzbekistan, low fertility trap, brain, volunteering, consumer spending, Telegraph, population estimates, urbanisation, Apocalypse, spending, Internet use, culture wars, Guardian, bride shortage, Muslim World, baby names, urban population, Youth, emigration,
Follow MercatorNet
Facebook
Twitter
Newsletters
Sections and Blogs
Harambee
PopCorn
Conjugality
Careful!
Family Edge
Sheila Reports
Reading Matters
Demography Is Destiny
Bioedge
Conniptions (the editorial)
Connecting
Information
our ideals
our People
Mercator who?
partner sites
audited accounts
donate
New Media Foundation
Suite 212
75 Archer Street
Chatswood NSW 2067
Australia

editor@mercatornet.com
+61 2 9007 1187

© New Media Foundation 2014 | powered by Encyclomedia | designed by Elleston