July
15th
  2:51:02 PM

“The Global Spread of Fertility Decline”

The Yale Global Online website recently published a piece by Michael S Teitelbaum and Jay c, the authors of a new book: The Global Spread of Fertility Decline: Population, Fear, and Uncertainty.  Their article is an excellent overview of the large demographic trends that we have mentioned a few (just a few...) times before on this blog, namely:

“...many people would be surprised – even shocked –  to know that over the past three decades, fertility rates have plummeted in many parts of the world, including China, Japan and even significant regions of India. These Asian giants have not been alone. In much of Europe, North America, East Asia and elsewhere, the average number of children born to women during the course of their childbearing years has fallen to unprecedentedly low levels.”

It seems that more and more people, including the article’s authors, are reporting on the fact that the popular notion of future, unrestrained population growth is incorrect:

“High fertility persists in sub-Saharan Africa and in parts of the Middle East, but elsewhere low fertility is more the rule than the exception. These underlying trends in childbearing mean that in the near future the rate of population growth both in Europe and Asia are likely to decline. The world is not on a path of unrestrained demographic growth, as some believe. People all over the world have hit the brakes. Thirty years ago only a small fraction of the world’s population lived in the few countries with fertility rates substantially below the “replacement level” – the rate at which the fertility of a hypothetical cohort of women would exactly replace itself in the next generation – normally set at 2.1 children per woman for populations with low mortality conditions. Fast forward to 2013, with roughly 60 percent of the world’s population living in countries with such below-replacement fertility rates.”

The speed at which fertility rates have declined is probably why popular culture and knowledge have not caught up the latest trends in fertility decline.  But what cannot be ignored is the increased immigration that so many countries are now relying on to bolster their populations.  As Teitelbaum and Winter note, increased immigration brings its own problems.  Immigrant communities must fit into their new countries and those new countries must somehow accommodate them.  In Europe especially, there is the danger of increased tensions between immigrants and their new homelands – particularly between hardline Islamist preachers and their followers on one hand and right wing extremists on the other.  But beyond these extremes there are others who are uncomfortable at the rate of immigration and the change in their communities, while the political elites welcome immigration as a source of taxpayers and workers.  But demographic decline touches on many topics beyond immigration, as the authors state:

“The global spread of low fertility matters. It touches on vital and explosive issues – the evolution of family ties, the future of pension provisions and care for the elderly, the evolution of immigration policies, the ethnic and language distributions within societies, the potential for violence within and among different religious and ethnic communities, the legal and moral debate over women’s rights in general and access to abortion and contraception in particular. Population trends on the global, national and local levels shape each of these contested topics and how they are perceived.”

As you can see, demography is not all about numbers!



to make a comment, click here


 
about this blog | Bookmark and Share

Search this blog

 Subscribe to Demography is Destiny
rss RSS feed of posts

 Recent Posts
Iran leads Muslim countries in fertility decline
20 Apr 2014
Russia: Growing and More Assertive
14 Apr 2014
Japan’s Shrinking Role in the World
8 Apr 2014
Why you shouldn’t take alarmist population predictions seriously
6 Apr 2014
Is Single Occupancy Vandalising the Environment?
4 Apr 2014

 MercatorNet blogs
Style and culture: Tiger Print
Family social policy: Family Edge
US political scene: Sheila Liaugminas
News about bioethics: BioEdge
From the editors: Conniptions

 Archive
Apr 2014 | Mar 2014 | Feb 2014 | Jan 2014 | more >>

 From MercatorNet's home page

Is “conscious uncoupling” really such a loopy idea?
15 Apr 2014
Gwyneth Paltrow was ridiculed when she explained her divorce, but there's a nugget of truth in her words.

A deal with the devil
11 Apr 2014
Why did American officials refuse to prosecute Japanese doctors who had committed horrendous crimes in World War II?

“Is this the upshot of your experiment?”
10 Apr 2014
A Nathaniel Hawthorne tale of scientific obsession sheds light on today's designer children.

Protecting the first “little platoon”
10 Apr 2014
Society needs family values - but not the faith they are based on? Where a liberal proposal falls down.

US defence policy in the wake of the Ukrainian affair
10 Apr 2014
Rethinking American strategy in the framework of conventional war against enemies fighting on their own terrain.


 Tags
Work, youth, declining fertility, pollution, slavery, predictions, bride shortage, brain, robotics, over-population, British Royal Family, Older Mothers, status of women, Guardian, euthanasia, sacrifice, Malaysia, Motherhood, Baby Roberts, consumer spending, Population, retirement, Paelstine, Parenting, demographics, American politics, Rome, Happiness, fertility rate, Internet use, Catholic church, One Child Policy, Australia, Ministry of Social Development, demographic growth, extra-marital birth, ageing, Zimbabwe, human trafficking, Finland, total fertility rate, Population Matters, aging, contraception, family, Politics, Census, Anglican Church, Belfast, population ageing, marriage, UCL, birth rates, Birth Defects, Lithuania, Housing, Germany, values, workplace, Islam, UNFPA, human rights, Latin America, ANZAC Day, Migration, Burma, Catholic Church, Simon Ross, immigration reform, East Timor, Year of the Dragon, Paul Ehrlich, debt, city life, climate change, Africa, men, New Zealand, austria, Famine, Bangladesh, Book Review, travel, Marriage, elections, overpopulation fiction, environmentalism, Curtin University, Optimum Population Trust, Latvia, Cuba, Deaths, Dan Brown, young adults, careers, Roma, fertitily, Beneficiaries, Congress, mortality rate, stock market,
Follow MercatorNet
Facebook
Twitter
Newsletters
Sections and Blogs
Harambee
PopCorn
Conjugality
Careful!
Family Edge
Sheila Reports
Reading Matters
Demography Is Destiny
Bioedge
Conniptions (the editorial)
Connecting
Information
our ideals
our People
Mercator who?
partner sites
audited accounts
donate
New Media Foundation
Suite 212
75 Archer Street
Chatswood NSW 2067
Australia

editor@mercatornet.com
+61 2 9007 1187

© New Media Foundation 2014 | powered by Encyclomedia | designed by Elleston