The decline in fertility in Middle Eastern Islamic countries -- including Iran -- is "amazing", says the head of the UN's population division, Hania Zlotnik. Eight of the 15 countries that experienced the biggest drop in population growth since 1980 are in the Middle East.

“In most of the Islamic world it’s amazing, the decline in fertility that has happened,’’ Ms. Zlotnik told reporters at a population conference this week. High birth rates in the Middle East are now an exception. “Even in cultures that are Muslim, advances of a very big quantity can be made, if the government has enough commitment to provide the services and the social infrastructure that validates those changes.”

The UN appears to believe that nearly all of the drop in fertility is due to the implementation of its policy of government-sponsored drives for contraception. As it says in a recent policy brief, "Expansion of access to family planning requires government commitment and effective action to disseminate information about contraceptive methods and the benefits of smaller families. "

This seems unlikely, since fertility is declining everywhere, even without government programs. But the decline in the Middle East certainly does defy stereotypes about Muslim fertility. From 1975 to 1980, the fertility rate in Iran was about 7. But by 2010, it will probably drop to less than 2, that is, less than replacement, according to recent UN statistics. The other Arab countries in the top 15 include Tunisia, Algeria, the United Arab Emirates, Libya, Kuwait, Qatar and Morocco. Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the region, has resisted the trend, with a fertility rate of about 5.

Fertility is a political issue in the Palestinian territories and Israel. In the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, it has fallen from about 7 in 1980 to about 5. The corresponding rates for Israel are about 3.4 to 2.8 -- although that includes Arab Israelis.

Readers of a New York Times blog entry on this topic were jubilant: "good news... this report makes my day..." and so on. However, Philip Longman points out in a recent article in USA Today that a rapid decline in fertility leads to rapid ageing a generation later:

"Under the grip of militant Islamic clerisy, Iran has seen its population of children implode. Accordingly, Iran's population is now aging at a rate nearly three times that of Western Europe. Maybe the middle aging of the Middle East will bring a mellower tone to the region, but middle age will pass swiftly to old age." ~ New York Times Dot Earth, Apr 3

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