There’s a demographic dimension to the turmoil in Iran over the disputed election results. Most of the rioters seem to have been young people in the cities. When you look at Iran’s demographic profile, you can see that there are bound to be tensions – there is a huge “youth bulge” amongst the 15 to 29-year-olds.

In Behind the Numbers, a blog of the Population Reference Bureau, Farzaneh Roudi explains why. In 1977, the total fertility rate (TFR) in rural areas was 8.1 and in urban areas 4.5. Thirty years later, the corresponding figures are 2.1 and 1.8. The TFR for the whole country is 1.9, well below replacement level and about the same as France. Iran somehow managed to reduce its birth rate by about two-thirds in a single generation.

“The rapid decline in the total fertility rate is due to simultaneous reduction at all ages: delay in childbearing by young couples, increased spacing of births by married women, and cessation of births by older women. These changes coincided with the revival of the national family planning program, delivered free through a nationwide network of primary health care facilities. Today, nearly 80 percent of married women of reproductive age use family planning and 60 percent of married women use a modern method.”

It would be interesting to know what techniques of social engineering the Islamic Republic used to achieve this demographic implosion. I would wager that the regime is quite unprepared for the result.

First of all, they are faced with youthful rebellion. About 2.3 million of Iran's 3 million unemployed are below the age of 30. This means that the regime is squandering its "demographic dividend" -- the large number of energetic, well-educated young workers who can contribute to economic growth. Given Iran's plummeting fertility rates, this is an unrepeatable opportunity for the government, and it is slipping from its grasp. 

“Unemployment and high costs of living, coupled with social and political restrictions, have made it increasingly difficult for young Iranians. The sudden uprising that erupted following the disputed presidential election of June 12 is a manifestation of all the underlying frustrations.”

And by mid-century, these youthful protesters will be elderly and there will be a relatively small working-age population to support them in a society with seriously weakened family ties. The future looks very bleak indeed – in the long run. The mystery is how the ruling elite is preparing for this. 



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