I hope you are brushing up on your Amharic. By 2050, Ethiopia will be the tenth largest country in the world, in terms of population, at about 145 milliion. So it is worthwhile paying attention to social trends there. One talking point in the Ethiopian media is whether it will be a majority Muslim or a majority Christian country. According to the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), the situation is far from clear.

Figures from a 2007 survey showed that Muslims were 34% of the population, Ethiopian Orthodoxy 44% and Protestants 19%. The fastest-growing group is the Protestants, who grew from 14% to 19% between 1994 and 2007. Muslims have grown faster, however, in urban areas.

Ethiopia is still an agricultural nation -- 84% of the population in rural areas. The total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below replacement level (2.1 children per woman) in the capital Addis Ababa, but it is 3.5 children per woman in towns, and remains above 6 children per women in the country. Overall the Muslim fertility rate is higher, especially in areas where Muslims and Christians are roughly equal in population. But it is very difficult to predict what the balance will be in 2050 because Ethiopia is a patchwork of ethnic groups. The PRB says:

The complex web of traditional culture, regional differences, rural community structure, and ethnicity strongly influences the lagging rural fertility transition, rapid population growth, and uneven geographic distribution in both major religions in Ethiopia. The role of religious identity is not as influential on fertility as other sociocultural factors.

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