May
17th
  9:01:25 AM

United Nations releases population projections to 2100

 

The Economist this month reports “Demography isn’t destiny, one hopes”.  For the first time, the United Nations has projected population figures as far ahead as 2100.  The figures predict that Nigeria, which is currently the world’s seventh most populous country with 158m people, will be the world’s third-largest nation by 2100 with 730m people.  However, China’s population is predicted to fall by 450m from a peak in 2025, to 941m. 

The Economist further reports:

"The global total will continue to rise slowly until 2100, when it will flatten out at 10.1 billion. During the period of fastest growth, in the late 1980s, the world’s population was rising by over 88m a year. Now annual growth is down to 75m and by 2050 it will be only 40m...Overall, the world’s population is increasingly stable. Below the surface, strains are growing."

The strains referred to seem largely to be caused by un-natural sex selection (presumably caused by abortion):

"China’s dependency ratio—the number of children and old people as a share of working-age adults—is rising faster than Europe’s, which will surely require scrapping the one-child policy. And China and India will be driven by conflict if the sexual discrepancies the UN projects come to pass. In 2025 China will have 96m men in their 20s but only 80m women. India will have 126m men in that age group and just 115m women."

If population increases in one half of the world are being forecast, in the developed world there a worrying drop which is forecast to continue and is already causing many problems such as those mentionedbefore on this blog.  

While negative reports of population growth abound, it is useful to remember that Paul Ehrlich in his 1968 The Population Bomb, asserted that "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970's the world will undergo famines—hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now."  Obviously this didn’t happen and we need to be critical of the biases and assumptions which underlie what we read now too.  One also needs to be wary of accepting as gospel a forecast of the world's population 90 years in the future.

Warren Sanderson, a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, also highlights the uncertainty of long range population forecasts: 

"The medium-range U.N. forecast puts the world’s population at 9.9 billion in 2075. Our comparable forecast has it peaking in that year at around 8.9 billion.

The difference arises because the new U.N. forecasts assume higher fertility in the second half of the century than we think justified. The most important point, however, is that future world population is extremely uncertain. We compute that in 2075 there is an 80 percent chance that the world’s population would lie between 7.1 and 10.8 billion people."

A commenter to a blog on the new United Nations projections commented that we need to stop having so many children for the sake of our children and grandchildren.  It is a contradiction worth pondering.



to make a comment, click here


comments powered by Disqus
 
about this blog | Bookmark and Share

Search this blog

 Subscribe to Demography is Destiny
rss RSS feed of posts

 Recent Posts
Jewish births “Trending Upwards” in Israel
23 Jul 2014
New Zealand among most ethnically diverse countries
21 Jul 2014
Niue: A dying Island
17 Jul 2014
Japan faces pilot shortage
15 Jul 2014
Human Trafficking to China
13 Jul 2014

 MercatorNet blogs
Style and culture: Tiger Print
Family social policy: Family Edge
US political scene: Sheila Liaugminas
News about bioethics: BioEdge
From the editors: Conniptions

 Archive
Jul 2014 | Jun 2014 | May 2014 | Apr 2014 | more >>

 From MercatorNet's home page

Reflections on an unforgiving day
18 Jul 2014
What links the twin tragedies of a downed plane over the Ukraine and Israel's invasion of Gaza?

Five steps Malaysia Airlines must take after its second disaster in four months
18 Jul 2014
Inaction could sink the company.

Why we all deserve free, yummy dark chocolate
18 Jul 2014
If Obamacare offers free contraceptives, why not free chocolate? It has health benefits, too.

Mothers in shackles
16 Jul 2014
It’s not only in Sudanese prisons that women give birth chained.

Celebrity swimmer Ian Thorpe comes out
15 Jul 2014
In a tell-all interview, one of Australia's most famous athletes admits that he is gay. Is he?


 Tags
food distribution, Gender Imbalance, ethnicity, UNFPA, Children, retirement age, WHO, anti-humanism, demographics, labor shortages, population density, son preference, Nicholas Eberstadt, Steven Mosher, Iraq, suffering, Lancet, city life, Republican presidential candidate, Hong Kong, USA, Royal Family, Greece, one child policy, centenarian, Sir David Attenborough, relationships, parenthood, population growth, videos, Muslim World, Infant Mortality, saving, Asia, PETA, world population, internal migration, Medicine, culture wars, disasters, bankruptcy, immigration, Belgium, satire, fertility treatment, Mothers, productivity, Education, Malaysia, religion, sharing, volunteering, Economy, world hunger, Population reduction, presidential election, shortages, ageing population, Youth, secularism, demographic decline, Japan tsunami, Border security, Baby Roberts, Vatican, election, Government spending, religion in public square, Bulgaria, family planning, pension, society, Moscow Demographic Summit 2011, Crimea, social unrest, Disabilities, demography, One child policy, Portugal, deaths, Catholic church, Latvia, consumerism, Migration, Singapore, economic crisis, Deaths, contraceptives, investment, old age, Zimbabwe, Canna, Ehrlich, predictions, Middle East, Prince Charles, Egypt, food wastage, Phillipines, declining population,
Follow MercatorNet
Facebook
Twitter
Newsletters
Sections and Blogs
Harambee
PopCorn
Conjugality
Careful!
Family Edge
Sheila Reports
Reading Matters
Demography Is Destiny
Bioedge
Conniptions (the editorial)
Connecting
Information
our ideals
our People
Mercator who?
partner sites
audited accounts
donate
New Media Foundation
Suite 12A, Level 2
5 George Street
North Strathfield NSW 2137
Australia

editor@mercatornet.com
+61 2 8005 8605
skype: mercatornet

© New Media Foundation 2014 | powered by Encyclomedia | designed by Elleston