Michael Cook | Friday, 1 August 2008

100% of Americans to be overweight by 2048

Most American adults will be overweight or obese by 2030 and related health care spending will be more than US$950 billion, according to the research in the latest issue of the journal Obesity. "If these trends continue, more than 86% of adults will be overweight or obese by 2030 with approximately 96% of non-Hispanic black women and 91% of Mexican-American men affected," says Dr Youfa Wang, the lead author. He estimates that at least 1 in 6 health care dollars will be spent on obesity-related ailments.

There may be more than a smidgen of alarmism in the report. Looking even further into the future, Dr Wang projects that by 2048 100% of American adults will be obese. This seems improbable, as other researchers claim that the prevalence of anorexia nervosa is also increasing. Surely skinny people will not become extinct! Nonetheless, public health experts are preparing for the worst. Overweight and obese people are at risk of hypertension, type 2 diabetes, heart disease and stroke. Children and young adults may end up having a shorter life expectancy than their parents if the trend continues.

This is gloomy news for the government health experts who organised the "Healthy People 2010" program. This aimed to reduce obesity by 15% among adults. Fat chance. Dr Wang’s believes that direct health costs attributable to overweight Americans will more than double every decade.

So what are the couch potatoes going to do about it? Well, some of them might be looking into a cardiac drug being tested by the pharmaceutical company Schering-Plough. Mice treated with acadesine burned more calories and had less fat than those that did not receive the drug, according to research in the medical journal Cell. On a treadmill, mice treated with acadesine could run about 44% farther and 23% longer than untreated mice. Scientists describe it as "exercise in a pill". ~ Washington Times, July 29; John Hopkins, July 28

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