Christmas is coming; 2025 is barreling down upon us. The New Year seems destined to bring monumental change. We are on track for more war, tectonic geopolitical permutations and the beginnings of a global monetary reset.

But will there be a turnaround in that which most ails our species? Sadly not. However, 2025 will bring a most important gathering that will address the issue head-on.

Global ailment

What most ails humanity? The global fertility crisis, aka the birth dearth, what scholarly types call demographic collapse. It is endemic in these oh-so-modern times.

In the last 75 years global total fertility rates (TFRs) have declined over 50 percent, from 4.85 in 1950 to just 2.25 today. By 2100 global TFR is projected to be under 1.6. This is unprecedented: that means never - ever - before – in all of history has there been such a prolonged decline in births. A solid majority of countries are no longer replacing themselves.

The world’s most populous country, India, has a below-replacement TFR of 2.0 (2.1 is replacement level). The East Asian “tiger” economies South Korea, China and Japan have had population decline for years. The entire West is on the cusp of such decline; only decades of mass immigration have delayed it.

If current trends continue, there will be a gradual, ineluctable unwinding of life as we know it, leading to dystopian scenarios of old age pension plan collapse, school closings, industry failures and a pandemic of isolated individuals adrift from family and community.

There is no disagreement about where this is headed. For a detailed analysis, The Lancet’s landmark study“Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021” is an eye-opener. Since the study’s publication in 2021, indicators are that fertility is falling even faster than projected. Yet many so-called “progressives,” self-righteous “Greens” and fad-fixated wokesters view humanity’s decline as a positive development. That is manifestly misanthropic. 

Pronatalist pushback

However, there is consequential consciousness-raising afoot. A growing number of people – transcending race, religion, politics and socio-economic class – are now aware of this debilitating trend. Thanks to pronatalist pronouncements by Pope Francis, various heads of state (Italy’s Meloni, Hungary’s Orbán, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping) and figures like Elon Musk,  Malcolm and Simone Collins and Hannah’s Children author Catherine Pakaluk, pronatalism is now part of popular culture. This is critical in a world conditioned to images and soundbites. Avidly pronatalist Senator J.D. Vance is now the Vice President-elect. 

Here's some good news from the future: Did I mention a conference? Yes, a gathering of pronatalist partisans will convene once again in Austin, Texas on March 28-29 for the annual Natalism.org conference. Among the speakers will be the above-mentioned Ms. Pakaluk and Mr and Mrs Collins, along with Dr Pat Fagan, Institute for Family Studies scholar Lyman Stone, Professor Michael Anton and prolific blogger and mother of five “Peachy Keenan.” I wonder if Pope Francis was invited. Might he endorse the confab?  

The Bennett’s Phylactery blog just posted “Nobody doubts demographic decline - they just don't trust the "solutions"” about the conference. Excerpts:

In December 2023, we brought together academics, founders, investors, and influencers to explore the scope of global demographic decline and its consequences.

The issue of natalism was regarded as “fringe”. Many of the academics whom we asked to speak turned us down — they agreed with us that demographic decline was a problem, but said it was too professionally risky to take any public position on the birth rate.

Since then, natalism has gone mainstream.

We’re winning the argument that the problem matters.

There are almost no countries on earth that would still have a demographic problem if everyone realized their desired fertility.

We just need to help more people to build the families they want — which means we have to understand what is in the way.

So NatalCon 2025 will focus on finding the root causes of demographic decline, and converting that knowledge into practical guidance.

Our toxic child-unfriendly popular culture needs to change. With leading celebrities and politicians raising the issue, mounting profamily scholarship, restored online freedom of speech (thank you Elon) and folks like the happy warriors assembling in Austin, change is underway.

President-elect Trump recently mentioned falling fertility as one of America’s most pressing challenges. Maybe he is listening to Elon, J. D. Vance and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Remember how Mr. Trump brought the issues of out-of-control immigration, “fake news” and “deep state” in from the shadows? Maybe he’ll help do that with falling fertility as well. No other political figure is as adept at generating fodder for popular culture.