The coattail factor in the election

Who would have thought, say….a month ago…..that Sen. Obama would
need state congressional races to give him any momentum. Or anything

But that was then. This is now.

A QUICK ponder: much ink has been spilled about what
effects Barack Obama will have on downticket congressional and senate
races. Once, it seemed like Mr Obama generated enthusiasm that might
help his ticket-mates on the undercard…

Which makes me wonder: does causation ever run the other way? I’m
thinking of two key swing states that look like they will replace
Republican senators with Democrats.

(note the post below on changing allegiances on a map that used to be defined by red state/blue state certainties)

These are newly purple states that Mr Obama desperately
wants to win. But Americans often like divided government. And they are
certainly none too fond of the current Democratic Congress overall. Is
it possible that a nontrivial number of purplish voters will vote for
their Democratic senate candidate and for John McCain, hoping that a
president McCain will curb a Democratic Congress in its excesses?

The Brits are on to something here. After all, Congress has managed to pull off the feat of having a lower approval rating than president Bush.


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