The map's changing colours

We’ve got change in America, alright. Was it the one Obama supporters counted on?

Hardly. The dust has settled from the two conventions, notes Stumper, and more than the Fall color change across the country isn’t just on the trees.

Even if McCain has yet to flip a state, a closer look at
the latest battleground polling reveals that the Arizonan’s gains have,
in fact, trickled down. They’ve had two effects. First, a handful of
red states that Obama once hoped to win now seem either out of reach or
more favorable to McCain, whether temporarily or permanently. And
second, McCain is suddenly within striking distance in a group of Blue
States where Obama until recently enjoyed a comfortable lead. The
result: a campaign that once boasted about redrawing the electoral map
by targeting an unprecedented 18 battlegrounds has been forced to focus
on a more familiar swath of states–and even play defense in places it
had hoped to win easily. In the last week, the Red States have gotten
redder–and the Blue States have gotten purpler.

This is one of those article for number crunchers and poll wonks. But it’s really interesting.

Democratic registrations and Chicago’s sophisticated
field operation will surely help. But what the last week of polling has
shown beyond any doubt is that McCain’s successful convention and
shocking choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate have shifted the map
ever so slightly to the right, transforming a landscape that favored
Obama into a landscape that favors, well, no one.

But the leaves are still turning.


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