When the supercommittee fails...

What next? That’s what seemingly all the media are asking. As if political realities aren’t enough disincentive to deal…
At least one article isn’t using the word ‘When’ they fail. The Daily Beast allows the conditional ‘If’, though it’s treated as a foregone conclusion, along with the Republicans’ guilt and the Democrats’ failure to communicate.

Assuming the supercommittee doesn’t reach a deal, what political impact would it have on the 2012 race? A failure hands both sides useful political ammunition (yet another reason that failure has always been likely.) There are some risks for both sides, as well. Who “wins” the failure will be a function of which party tells a more plausible story about why it happened.
Or, as this partisan piece summarizes in this pull quote:

When the supercommittee fails, the winner will be the party that has more successfully sold its explanation of the failure.
Are we that gullible? I don’t think so. But the media bank on forming your opinions. Time said times up before it actually was, which may be true, but does reveal a certain widespread pessimism.

As the window of opportunity to do something big has passed – the Congressional Budget Office really needed to see language for a big bill by Thursday evening in order to score it by the Monday deadline – lawmakers spent more time figuring out how to blame one another than what to do next. But, it’s now worth asking: If they can’t find $1.2 trillion in savings, what happens next?
Check the article for Plans B, C, D, E and F. They’re predicting F.
They continue to blame each other for everything, allegedly for political gain, though we aren’t impressed by political leaders who don’t take accountability seriously.
Meanwhile, there is good news, though one has to search for it.
Bloomberg reported this:

The index of U.S. leading indicators climbed more than forecast in October, signaling the world’s largest economy will keep growing in early 2012.

The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.9 percent, the biggest jump since February, after a 0.1 percent September increase, the New York- based research group said today. The median forecast of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected the gauge would advance 0.6 percent.

Gains in consumer spending, manufacturing and homebuilding, combined with fewer job losses, point to an economy that is weathering the turbulence in financial markets caused by the debt crisis in Europe.
Now pay attention…

“The economy looks to be getting better despite the continued drumbeat of negativity in financial markets,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the gain. “That speaks to U.S. resiliency. If we can put some of these fiscal issues behind us, even for a short period of time, we might be able to come back.”
“That speaks to U.S. resiliency.” That’s you. That’s us. Behind the terms ‘business’ and ‘finance’ and ‘commerce’ and ‘economy’ is the reality of people buying and selling and making decisions and acting. We have to be resilient. I believe we are. Now, let’s show these ‘leaders’ how to be accountable.


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