A god that failed: the cult of the expert

Poof! Gone! Scarpered! Now you see him; now you don’t! On November 26, Bashar al-Assad was universally acknowledged – and feared –as the president of Syria, a job he had held since since 2000. As of December 8, he is a pensioner of Vladimir Putin somewhere in Russia.

In two weeks the balance of power in the Middle East has been upended. The pressure is off Israel on its northern border. Hezbollah has lost a titanic ally. Iran has lost a client state. ISIS could be back in the game. The Kurds are dreaming of independence. Russia has lost its only Mediterranean naval base and its Syrian airports. Turkey has become the regional powerbroker. In two weeks.

The rebels headed by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) stormed out of Idlib and down the M5 motorway. The Syrian Army melted away like snow in the desert. Aleppo fell. Hama fell. Homs fell. Damascus fell. After 13 years of brutal civil war and 500,000 deaths, the only remnant of the Great Syrian Snowman was his carrot nose on the tarmac beneath his flight to Moscow.

Where are the experts who had predicted this? In Russia? In Iran? In the EU? In the United States? Many voices are now chiming in to explain the history of Bashar and his father Hafez al-Assad, the Arab Spring, and the civil war. After the fact, mind you. None of these experts foresaw the HTS break-out or the evaporation of Assad’s power. None of them.

Experts are experts at hindsight. 9/11, the global financial crisis, drones, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, Covid-19, war in Ukraine, October 7, the return of Donald Trump – no one would have predicted them one or two years in advance. This week’s abrupt reversal of fortunes in Syria is only slightly more surprising.

Let the experts pick over the bones of the new Syria. The question this astonishing event raises is why we kowtow to experts. It’s not that experts are useless. They’re not. They have expertise. They can analyse situations and propose avenues forward. But their analysis is based on the past. They’re not experts about black swan events. They can only speculate where the river of history will flow.

 

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A case in point: Masha Gessen, the newest “opinion columnist” at the New York Times. Gessen used to be a “she” but has become a non-binary “they”, a fact which must have made her irresistible for the Times. Born in Russia, she is the author of an acclaimed biography, The Man Without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin.

The Times says that “There are few greater authorities on the planet on the rise of authoritarianism than Masha Gessen.” Not only that, “They’ve [ie, Gessen] also demonstrated over and over that this considerable expertise extends much further, whether to questions of civil rights, history, politics, philosophy, gender or the Middle East.” In short, Gessen is an omni-expertus. Which is not surprising – all of the Times columnists are.

But this planetary expert in authoritarianism, Russia, history, politics and the Middle East failed to predict Putin’s humiliation at the hands of the Syrian rebels. Strange, that.

As for her expertise on gender, it seems to be based on “lived experience” rather than swotting over books. At a writers’s festival in Sydney a few years ago she defended same-sex marriage with sentiments which may align with the New York Times view of the universe, but not with the hoi polloi:

“It’s a no-brainer that the institution of marriage should not exist… [Cheers and laughter from audience.] Fighting for gay marriage generally involves lying about what we are going to do with marriage when we get there—because we lie that the institution of marriage is not going to change, and that is a lie.”

Which has not stopped her having three children, three same-sex spouses and two same-sex divorces.

Her latest column deals with oral arguments in United States v. Skrmetti, a case before the US Supreme Court which deals with a Tennessee law banning puberty blockers and hormone therapy for transgender minors. American medical experts back transgender treatment for minors, says Gessen; why is SCOTUS ignoring them?  Gessen, at the same time, is ignoring repudiation of this controversial model by Sweden, Finland, and the United Kingdom.

“Rejection of genuine expertise is both a precondition and a function of autocracy,” Gessen writes. “Joseph Stalin’s regime outlawed genetics as ‘pseudoscience,’ while he himself was declared an expert in all fields, from linguistics to biology.” Very much like omni-expertus Gessen, No?

If the Supreme Court upholds the Tennessee law, Gessen warns, totalitarianism looms. Speaking with the Olympian gravitas appropriate for a New York Times expert in gender, she writes: “Quackery will continue its ascent; expert consensus, not only in medicine but in all the disciplines that enable us to know and navigate the world, will be marginalized.”

I think Masha Gessen is talking through their hat. Their views on gender are absurd. Their knowledge of the Middle East is no better than yours and mine. They failed to anticipate the biggest setback in years for Vladimir Putin, the topic on which they have built their reputation.

Masha Gessen is a talented writer. Let her be touted as a brilliant stylist, a non-binary provocateur, a Russian dissident, or a fascinating crackpot. But not as an expert. It’s deceptive advertising.

Experts brought us cane toads, zero population growth, weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the Iraq war, Net Zero power shortages, lockdowns, and assembly lines for trans teens. Enough of the cult of the expert. 


Is this too cynical? Don’t experts have a role? 


Michael Cook is editor of Mercator.

Image credit: screenshot South China Morning Post / AFP  


 

Showing 5 reactions

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  • Juan Llor Baños
    commented 2024-12-12 06:40:14 +1100
    Great article! Enough of “worshipping” expert journalists!
  • Rob McKilliam
    commented 2024-12-11 21:39:25 +1100
    Whenever I read the word ‘expert’ in a news article I am immediately suspect bias.
  • Anon Emouse
    commented 2024-12-11 06:55:23 +1100
    I can’t help but feel as though dragging someone’s views on gender isn’t germane to the topic at hand, Michael
  • mrscracker
    I expect there were some “expert” people who knew what was going to happen in Syria.
    But yes, "experts " in the States brought us the kudzu vine and multiflora roses amongst other invasive pests.
  • Michael Cook
    published this page in The Latest 2024-12-10 13:04:54 +1100