Amidst the AI boom, is a trickle-down mini baby boom emerging in Taiwan?

In recent years, especially since the emergence of ChatGPT, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been regarded as one of the most important economic and technological revolutions of our time. It has also been of great help to the profit margins and valuation of one company called Nvidia, who found themselves ridiculously lucky when their GPUs became exactly what all the AI companies needed to train their large language models (LLMs), and Nvidia’s revenue has since surged, briefly becoming the most valuable company in the world.

Since 2022, Nvidia stock prices, as well as the stocks and revenue of Taiwanese chip manufacturers who are powering the current AI craze, have soared. This in turn has greatly boosted Taiwanese stocks in general, with Taiwanese shares being the best-performing stock market in all of Asia in the first half of 2024.

Currently, no one knows how long the AI bubble will continue, but one thing is for sure — the Taiwanese tech workers benefitting directly from this AI boom, a tiny percentage of the total Taiwanese population, are having an economic boom and a mini baby boom of their own, in stark contrast to their compatriots in the island nation. However, is this enough to save Taiwan’s fertility rate?

Taiwan's Silicon Valley

When Nvidia’s Taiwanese-born CEO, Jensen Huang, visited Taiwan in June, he received rockstar/superstar treatment across the country. “Jensanity” hit probably the hardest in the city of Hsinchu, where the Hsinchu Science Park is located, where the world’s biggest super-advanced chips manufacturer, TSMC, has its headquarters and main manufacturing facilities.

Jensen Huang himself has stated that Nvidia is planning to invest in Hsinchu, where a cluster of Taiwan’s top semiconductor companies are all situated in close proximity to one another within the Hsinchu Science Park. Known as Taiwan’s Silicon Valley, this special region of Taiwan is probably the only place that is currently generating unprecedented profits from AI, because in the actual Silicon Valley in San Francisco, AI giants are still pumping billions in investment but are yet to see sufficient return on investment.

Amidst this boom in AI, the residents of Hsinchu Science Park, the majority of which are employees of these chip manufacturers and other related industries, are enjoying a major jump in their own income and wealth. Hsinchu City and Hsinchu County, the two prefectures where the 150000 workers at the Science Park live and work, both have the highest annual average household income in the whole of Taiwan, beating even the capital Taipei. Guanxin Village, where 90 percent of the residents work at the Hsinchu Science Park, has an average annual household income of US$120,000, making it the wealthiest area in all of Taiwan.

Hsinchu City is also the youngest city in Taiwan, with 15.71 percent of the population under the age of 14, whilst the Taiwanese national average is just 11.9 percent, and together with Hsinchu County (15.36 percent under the age of 14), are the only two prefectures in Taiwan where children aged 0-14 still outnumber the elderly aged 65 and above.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, these young, well-off tech employees who are receiving huge bonuses and eye-watering salaries are forming their own families and having children, since the biggest barriers to childbearing in Taiwanese society (i.e. income and housing) are not concerns these tech elites need to worry about.

If we look back to Guanxin village, it is reported that 29 percent of the population are children aged 0-14, nearly triple that of the Taiwanese average of 11.9 percent, and the median age of the area is just 30, compared to the national median age of 45. Moreover, in areas close to the Hsinchu Science Park, schools are reporting a shortage of places for students, with parents fighting for spaces to accommodate their children. This is very rare in Taiwan, where, due to the collapse in fertility rates almost everywhere else on the island, schools are closing and merging en masse.

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Another sign of how fertile these tech workers are can be found in this surprising statistic: according to TSMC, its employees last year had 2463 children, out of a total of 135,000 births nationwide. This means that TSMC employees accounted for 1.8 percent of all births in Taiwan. Every one out of fifty Taiwanese babies will be a TSMC baby. TSMC employees have 4 kindergartens specially set up by the company just for their children, free of charge, and receive birth subsidies from the company.

Other semiconductor companies in Taiwan have also been encouraging this baby boom, with TSMC’s competitor Mediatek pledging birth bonuses and building nurseries for its employees' children, whilst electronics manufacturer Honhai promises to pay its employees 15000 New Taiwan Dollars (around 500 US dollars) every month from birth up to the age of 7. This explains why these tech company workers and their families have double the birth rate of their fellow Taiwanese.

Majority malaise

With these unprecedented benefits that most ordinary Taiwanese people can only dream of, no wonder these tech workers are having their own baby boom. However, it is highly unlikely that this will spill over into the general population of Taiwan — or even the general population of the rest of the Hsinchu area.

If we look at the latest birth statistics in Taiwan, the fertility situation is simply worsening on all fronts. Demographers had hoped for an uptick in births thanks to the effects of the auspicious Year of the Dragon, but so far, these effects are nowhere to be seen, as births in Taiwan up to May 2024 have seen a continued reduction, with 1600 births less than the comparative January-May 2023 period, translating to a 2.88 percent drop year on year over the same period. Unless some kind of miracle happens in the second half of this year, it seems likely that Taiwan’s TFR will be even lower than that of 2023, which was 0.87, not that much higher than South Korea.

Moreover, no matter how fecund these 150,000 tech workers and their families are, the effects of their fertility will merely be a drop in the bucket in a nation of 23 million people. Their effects on local fertility are also somewhat limited. Hsinchu County had a TFR of 1.02, which is higher than the national average of 0.87 and is at least above 1, and this is undoubtedly singlehandedly boosted due to the wealthy Science Park folks, but that remains an extremely low TFR. Moreover, the two Hsinchu prefectures combined have a population of 1 million, which means that even on their home turf, the tech workers are a minority of the population, and their higher fertility can only improve the demographic situation in their specific local area.

With that being said, this mini “high-tech baby boom” remains a very interesting phenomenon to be observed and one of the few encouraging demographic signs coming out of Taiwan, which is in dire need of a demographic turnaround. Moreover, in the midst of all the AI hype, with Jensen Huang himself being very much a gold rush shovel-selling hypeman himself, making outlandish claims about how AI will take over the world in three years or less, the gold rush is at least helping a small group of TSMC engineers and their families have more children and a better quality of life. Hopefully, this will eventually in some way trickle down to the general Taiwan population one day.


Is this an interesting economic and demographic correlation? Let us know in the comments box.


William Huang is an avid researcher of China and East Asia’s looming demographic crisis. A product of China's one-child policy, it was only when he went overseas to study that he realised just how much damage this policy has done to the Chinese nation and his generation.

Image credit: Pexels


 

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