After the implosion of the government of Bashar al-Assad, Syrians seem to be overcome by the twin emotions of joy and uncertainty. Amongst Christians, uncertainty seems to predominate.

The Assad regime has been toppled by  Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group and other militias like the Syrian National Army, and the Free Syrian Army, with backing from Türkiye.

Assad, who was responsible for countless crimes against humanity—torture, arbitrary detention, and chemical weapons attacks on his own people—was hated. “Most people are glad Assad is gone,” David Eubank, head of Free Burma Rangers (FBR), a faith-driven aid organization working in conflict zones like Burma, Syria, and Iraq, told Mercator. However, he cautioned that the country may now be moving from one human rights catastrophe into another. “It is very uncertain what this Islamic Caliphate will mean,” he warned. 

HTS is regarded as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union, Russia, and Australia, along with many other nations. It was originally an affiliate of al-Qaeda and had ties with ISIS. At the moment, the head of HTS, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has a US$10 million bounty on his head.

However, al-Jolani is making an effort to appear moderate. He has promised that his government will respect all faiths in Syria, including the Alawites, Shia, Christians, and Druze. It remains to be seen how much credit can be given to these guarantees. The Taliban were lavish with their promises when they resumed their rule of Afghanistan – they have reneged on many of them.

According to the UK-based Christian news service Open Doors, “Under HTS-control in Idlib, Christian clergy are not allowed to walk outside in any clothing that makes them recognisable as priests or pastors. Crosses have been removed from church buildings.”

But so far, so good, at least by the low standards of religious freedom in countries governed by Islamic extremists. “Thank God, this transition happened without bloodshed, without the carnage that was feared,” Cardinal Mario Zenari, the apostolic nuncio to Syria, told Vatican News. “Now the path ahead is steep—those who have taken power have promised to respect everyone and to build a new Syria. We hope they will keep these promises, but of course, the road ahead remains very difficult.”

Just surviving is a miracle

The humanitarian crisis in Syria, already severe before the latest round of fighting, has reached catastrophic levels. An estimated 16.7 million people are now in need of aid, including 7.5 million children. The country is home to 7.2 million internally displaced people, and over 6.3 million Syrians have fled to neighboring countries. The conflict, ongoing since 2011, has destroyed vital infrastructure, leaving millions without access to basic services, healthcare, and education. The February 2023 earthquake exacerbated the crisis, displacing hundreds of thousands and worsening food insecurity, malnutrition, and access to health services.

With many families living in overcrowded camps, the situation remains dire, particularly for children, with many out of school, facing child labor, and vulnerable to exploitation and abuse.

As a result of the recent fighting, the number of internally displaced persons is rising, while public services are deteriorating in many areas, making food and resource insecurity even worse. The need for aid is growing, and with winter setting in, temperatures can drop to freezing at night. As the conflict persists, conditions are expected to worsen, further complicating aid deliveries from neighboring countries.

Kurds and Christians are especially vulnerable in the current crisis, as several groups now in control of parts of Syria have direct ties to ISIS. According to Free Burma Rangers in Syria, Christians are afraid to leave their homes due to the immediate threat of the fighting. However, they are also terrified that if they stay, they could face an even worse situation in the long term.