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Everything you need to know about the coming demographic collapse
No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children
by Paul Morland | Forum | 2024, 209 pages
We live in a world marinated in “progressivism,” an essentially nihilist, relativist, materialist zeitgeist that brooks no dissent. In public discourse all are expected to bend the knee to “anti-racism,” radical feminism, “diversity,” “equity” and all else precious to the PC post-1960s deus ex machina. Failing to do so would be woefully out of fashion, reactionary and counter cultural. That is problematic for pro-natalists.
Why? Nothing is more traditional, conventional and “normal” than marriage, family and children. Nothing is more antithetical to an ethos equating most things traditional, conventional and “normal” with patriarchy, racism, repression of women, polluting the planet, etc.
As a result, pro-natalists are frequently characterized as “right wing,” “racist,” pro-eugenics and anti-environment.
Paul Morland, the world’s leading demographer
That is all a load of rubbish, says Dr Paul Morland, prolific author and arguably the world’s preeminent demographer. That’s not a direct quote, as Morland is a serious scholar devoid of diatribe. Nonetheless, he artfully debunks such notions in his latest book No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children. In so doing, Dr Morland painstakingly points out that pro-natalism has been around for millennia and has nothing to do with race, oppression and trashing the planet. It has everything to do with survival of the species.
Morland devotes considerable space to the role of religion in reproductive behaviours, with revealing insights into the Abrahamic faiths. Look no further than the Book of Genesis telling us to “be fruitful and multiply.” Other religious traditions convey similar pro-natalist messages. People of faith have higher fertility than non-believers. Israel stands out with a robust pro-natalist Zionism to ensure the country remains majority Jewish. The Amish, Haredi Jews and tribal Islamic people of Niger have the world’s highest fertility. East Asia and Eastern Europe have the lowest. There have been pro-natalist Communists, National Socialists, and all in between. It is not as novel or peculiar as some would have us believe.
Through citing demographic trends and population anecdotes from around the world, Morland constructs a rock-solid case that our survival depends on replacing ourselves. While that may be self-evident to Mercatorreaders, today’s rapidly ageing and somewhat confused world could benefit from an explanation:
Once it was material progress that drove falling birthrates. Now, in much of the world, it is ideals and lifestyle inconsistent with family formation and populations replacing themselves generation by generation.
Can’t you hear the howls of homophobia from the halls of academe? Yet we should confront the discomforting truth: “[I]deals and lifestyle inconsistent with family formation” are sufficiently widespread that large segments of society, especially in the Global North, consider children either too costly, an impediment to career success, or the barrier to an affluent lifestyle. Obligation to family, community, clan or tribe has disappeared – and is even condemned. Religious faith is foregone and forgotten. It is all about the here and now of what is easy, convenient and comfortable. With a critical mass of atomized individuals and rampant self-indulgence, dysfunctional societies arise. Consequentially we’re on the cusp of population collapse.
This is an unfolding human tragedy. However, few are aware of the looming crisis and have no idea of the ramifications ahead. No One Left is an engaging tutorial on the subject.
Dr Morland forthrightly addresses this in dispassionate, scholarly though easy-to-read prose. His book is a formidable analysis of humanity’s demographic conundrum and is devoid of politics, judgmentalism or cultural bias. He provides us, per the old American TV series Dragnet, with “just the facts.” And the facts are cause for concern.
Denial of the obvious
Often when the subject of demographic collapse is raised, unawareness becomes surprise, then morphs into denial. This can bring on callous condemnation: Pro-natalists don’t care about overcrowding and would be content to see the hive of humanity living cheek by jowl on the verge of starvation. Then the Malthusian argument persists that ecological overshoot will ruin us by depleting the food supply. While that never happened, true believers are legion. The environmentalist contention that children increase our carbon footprint is persuasive among Western up-and-comers. The point is lost that climate is always changing, and that while human beings undoubtedly contribute to it, more greenhouse gases have been released in single volcanic eruptions than humanity generates in years. Garden-variety nihilists don’t want to bring new life into such a horrible cruel world. So it goes.
Such arguments would perhaps be more understandable was a prolonged global population explosion underway, food was running out and the environment was being rapaciously degraded. But the troubling reality is that we’re entering – in the early stages still – a prolonged population implosion. The commensurate disruptions in life as we know it have yet to present themselves in full, as immigration and automation have thus far taken some of the sting out of the birth dearth. Consequently, there is no widespread media-generated alarm. Nonetheless, labour shortages, ageing societies, out-of-whack dependency ratios and family dissolution are upon us. Dr. Morland sums it up with what he calls the “Demographic Trilemma:”
Once through the demographic transition, countries can have two but not three of the following: a low fertility rate and few children, ethnic homogeneity and economic dynamism. I call this the ‘demographic trilemma.’ If they want the first two – both to have a low fertility rate and retain a homogenous society without mass immigration – like Japan they will face an ever-worsening old age support ratio and a waning economy. If nations want a low total fertility rate and a dynamic economy, or at least aspire to economic growth, they will need to keep their old-age dependency ratios down by mass immigration – which is in any case only a temporary solution, given declining global fertility rates. Only by having a high fertility rate can a country have both a dynamic economy and avoid dependence on immigration.
Morland’s ‘trilemma’ is yet another daunting aspect of falling fertility. Immigration has turned out to be a socially disruptive, failed short-term fix. As persistent demographic decline is a recent phenomenon, government, business, religious leaders and regular folks will grapple with the challenge. Out of that some novel solutions will emerge.
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Dystopian scenarios
Further, while temporary population declines have occurred due to high death rates from war and disease, the prolonged decline in births is unprecedented, thus there is no body of scholarship or personal testimony to the effects – until recently. Most cannot fathom that which has never happened. Dystopia is thought of as the province of fiction, per Huxley’s Brave New World and Orwell’s 1984. But Dr. Morland offers a comprehensive explanation of the demographic conundrum that could well bring real-world dystopia.
Yet Morland understands that nightmarish scenarios may be curtailed though a plausible population scenario that is
a self-inflicted process whereby those who do not wish to have children gently disappear into history, while those inclined towards pro-natalism create the descendant to eventually take their place.
In the long term that should bring about fertility increase, maybe just in the nick of time to spare us from extinction. Time will tell.
Morland’s extremely well-crafted exposition is astutely divided into two parts: “Extinctions and Exceptions” examines low fertility, the “Looming Demographic Armageddon” and peoples with whom fertility remains strong. From there he proceeds to “Objections and Solutions” where the roles of women, environmental concerns, immigration, technology and government are examined.
Helping ourselves
Morland’s compelling reporting builds to a crescendo with the last but most meaningful chapter “What We Can Do for Ourselves.” He relates how in 2007 Georgian Orthodox Patriarch Ilia II stepped up and offered to baptize and stand as godfather to all newborns of married couples that already had two children. That was so meaningful to Orthodox Georgians that in the next decade 30,000 such baptisms were reported. Morland also discusses cultural icons and national leaders:
[W]hile culture is the critical ingredient in determining a country’s fertility rate, we should not assume that it is free from influence by the world of politics.
Speaking of culture and politics:
In China, there are fewer than 10 million births each year and about 13 million abortions, so this is a lever that could be pulled if the government chose to do so.
Pulling a lever. Grim. No taboo is spared in addressing the multiple aspects of demographic collapse. The role of men is discussed at length, parenting as a joint enterprise, and data is cited about the criticality of grandparent involvement in child-rearing and what it means for fertility:
There is solid research supporting the hypothesis that the involvement of grandparents has an impact on the fertility intentions of women.
Morland corrals everything we have written about demography in Mercator along with much, much more, offering scholarly insight while amplifying historical context. He leaves no stone unturned, even delving into the “baby gap”, the difference between the number of children desired and the number born. His book is a must-read for understanding demographic collapse, the various facets of pro-natalism, and what can and should be done to address the birth dearth.
No One Left is a genuinely magisterial work, though Dr Morland will no doubt produce even more profound scholarship as our demographic future unfolds. His book cogently and concisely condenses the world’s most critical conundrum into just 209 intensely interesting pages, bolstered by 38 pages of notes.
As an avid reader, I was genuinely surprised to learn so much in so few pages. As a demography nerd I was elated. Anyone interested in gaining valuable, helpful insight into demographic collapse and prospects for the future should read No One Left. It will sharpen your understanding and inform your perspective. Thank you, Dr. Morland, for this absolutely riveting book.
What is the most feasible policy for combatting the birth dearth?
Louis T. March has a background in government, business, and philanthropy. A former talk show host, author, and public speaker, he is a dedicated student of history and genealogy. Louis lives with his family in the beautiful Shenandoah Valley of Virginia.
Image credit: Bigstock
Have your say!
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mrscracker commented 2024-12-14 23:37:50 +1100We’re on the same page here Mr. Steven. Outside of some apocalyptic plague/ catastrophe I don’t believe we’re going extinct as a species. My thoughts are the same as yours about which groups will continue to populate the planet and which will diminish.
Human beings are very resourceful and I believe even though we face a rough road as populations age in the developed world we will find solutions. Hopefully ethical solutions. Not the Soylent Green variety. -
Steven Meyer commented 2024-12-14 14:59:30 +1100mrscracker,
I’m not ignoring the very real challenges of population ageing and decline.
But do you seriously think the human race is going to go extinct because we stop making babies?
To me this is, by far, the most likely scenario:
“..a self-inflicted process whereby those who do not wish to have children gently disappear into history, while those inclined towards pro-natalism create the descendant to eventually take their place.” -
mrscracker commented 2024-12-10 23:30:18 +1100Thank you for sharing this. No matter how clearly the demographic writing on the wall is explained there will remain those folks who are not convinced.
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Paul Bunyan commented 2024-12-10 14:14:09 +1100That was a rather long diatribe aimed at instituting a system of factory farming where humans are allowed to go to the supermarket, the daycare center, work, school and little else.
I can think of nothing worse than institutionalized slavery.
I feed bad for the pro-natalists who can’t afford to have children. They will likely end up regretting their decision, and push their children towards remaining childfree. -