Contrary to the views of many of our political, cultural and intellectual elites, biological sex is still a thing. And while culture obviously can and does impact the roles men and women assume, the fact that women give birth and play a critical role in child rearing has powerful behavioural and psychological consequences for half of the human race. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the realm of politics - where the sex of American voters promises to have a powerful impact on who gets to be President for the next four years.

The impact of a citizen’s sex on his or her voting behaviour and political attitudes has been the subject of considerable study and heated debate since the late 60s. And while the findings of this research are of great interest to political junkies such as myself, they are also very salient (or should be) to the population as a whole since they reveal a great deal about who we are, the countries we inhabit, and the radical transformation currently taking place in the West.

I was first exposed to this link while working on a thesis on the British New Left where at the time women in the UK leaned toward the Conservatives, while men were more likely to support Labour. The explanation was that women, as wives and mothers, viewed the Conservatives as more supportive of family values and social stability, while men (who were still the primary bread winners) saw Labour as more likely to support higher wages and better working conditions. Another factor was that women were more religious – which reinforced their conservatism.

This situation persisted in the UK until the 2017 election where women for the first time were more likely to vote Labour than men – a situation that has persisted ever since. And a similar trend has existed in the US since 1980, providing Democrats with one of their most dependable blocs of supporters.

Even so, women are individual human beings – each with their own needs and desires – not robots who dutifully do whatever is expected of them based on models developed by statisticians and experts in the field of political sociology. So, while previous voting history may suggest that women will come through for the Democrats once again in November, past performance is not a guarantee of future behaviour. Especially given the current period in US history where a number of “black swan events” – such as the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s decision to not run again – are wreaking havoc on election plans and creating an entirely new dynamic.

And, as any social marketing practitioner will tell you, there is no such thing as “all women” or “all men”. Rather there are many different subgroupings – each with their own special characteristics, which must be addressed if they are to be won over.

That’s where the real fun lies for those of us active in this field.

The situation in the US

Reviewing the historical data, it’s clear that there has been a significant leftward trend among women generally in favour of the Democrats – particularly evident among young women 18-29, 40% of whom described themselves as “very liberal/liberal” in 2023 (compared to 30% in 1999. This stands in sharp contrast to men in the same age group whose self-identification as “very liberal/liberal” has stayed steady at around 25% since 1999.

Not surprisingly, this leftward tilt by US women (seen in many Western countries) is a complex phenomenon driven by a number of social, economic and cultural forces. One current explanation popular among many on the Left flows from their belief that, since women (in their opinion) are more compassionate than men, it is natural that they would be drawn to the Democratic Party which (once again in their opinion) is more compassionate and attuned to the needs of woman.

In support of this claim, they point to the Party’s long-standing commitment to abortion – which many believe saved them in the 2022 midterm elections due to women voters and abortion activists who turned the anticipated “red tsunami” into a mere trickle.

Hoping for a similar reversal of their fortunes in November and given the longstanding abortion advocacy of Kamala Harris and a paucity of issues which benefit them in this election cycle, abortion will likely play a large role in the Democrats’ campaign.

Fearing this to be an area of vulnerability, the Republican Party recently watered down its long-standing pro-life position – a surprising move which threatens to alienate the pro-life segment of their base without offering any realistic hope of increased support from those favouring abortion.

To my mind, this is a policy shift born more out of fear than a careful consideration of the data. For while polling since 2019 – especially since 2022 - does show an increase in self-identification as “pro-choice” by Americans, closer examination suggests that a significant portion of this comes from a sharp spike in Democrats’ support for abortion following the overturning of Roe v. Wade. So, since many of these people already vote Democrat – and given the ephemeral nature of voter rage – watering down their platform may have been neither necessary nor wise.

Another policy area frequently touted as evidence that Democrats are kinder, more tolerant people is their strong support for the full spectrum of LGBT issues. Which has found its expression in the large number of LGBT officials appointed under the Biden Administration – and, paradoxically, to the ironic situation where few, if any, Administration officials seem able to say what a woman is. While this commitment to the LGBT cause probably does not play a major role in influencing most women voters – who, according to polls, are more focused on economic issues such as inflation – it does help them with one group of women voters – young, single, university women, who, if we are to believe the polls, increasingly identify as LGBT.

Drilling down into the data

Part of the problem in seeking to understand the role of sex and gender in voter behaviour is that reality is invariably more complex than any of us care to admit. Which is clearly the case here. For drilling down into the data on women’s voting behaviour demonstrates that they are a very diverse group – as seen by the fact that, while overall women are moving leftward, important voter segments are doing the opposite and increasingly supporting the Republicans.

So, why is this?

One important factor is marriage and children (or the lack thereof) which has a huge impact. For while “single woke female“ (particularly college-educated) voters are emerging as one of the most reliable voting blocs for the Democrats, married women with children tend to be more conservative – as seen in the 2022 elections where they broke for the Republicans. Much of this growing marriage gap is the result of Democrats increasingly foregoing marriage. Such was the finding of the American National Election Studies (ANES) survey which found that, between 1979 and 2024, the number of Democrats in the 30 to 50-year category who have never married has more than tripled (from 8% to 26%) while the number of Republicans saw a smaller increase from 6% to 12%.

Other research suggests that earlier marriage also plays an important role – as does the availability of affordable housing. (Which may in part explain why high-density, high-cost coastal areas such as New York and California support the Democrats – while the more affordable, less crowded “fly-over-country” states tend to vote Republican.)