The plagues of Ukraine: war and demographic collapse

Louis T. March

October 14, 2024 32 Reactions

However, research specialist Svitlana Aksenova of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies cites the “lack of reliable statistical data” though she is certain that Ukraine’s total fertility rate (TFR) is well below one child per female (<1.0) and likely the world’s lowest, surpassing South Korea. (That is also the US Central Intelligence Agency’s assessment).

We will never be able to reach a birth rate of two children per woman. It would be very positive if we could at least return to the level we had in 2012. Back then, the birth rate was one and a half children per woman, or 15 births per 10 women.

This forecast of 25 million people assumes that a large portion of the population that fled the war will not return. It suggests that people will be very hesitant to come back.

Aksenova conceded that “The figure of 25.2 million was provided to illustrate the severity of the demographic problem.” The Ministry hopes to raise Ukraine’s TFR to the 2012 level of 1.5 by 2040. Ukraine’s 2020 (reported) TFR was 1.22.

According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), as of February 2024, there were 3.7 million internally displaced persons and 6.5 million recorded refugees from Ukraine throughout the world. This mass exodus of mostly younger people is a debilitating brain drain, has depopulated many areas and ensured a more rapidly ageing population.

Future prospects

There is talk in Washington about staving off military collapse until after the US presidential election, then bailing on Ukraine to concentrate on the Middle East. There is also talk of establishing a government-in-exile. Will President Zelensky be thrown under the bus? Ukrainian defeat would lock in global multipolarity. I only hope that nobody goes nuclear. Ukraine’s horrific humanitarian disaster is what inspired, finally, the Strategy for Demographic Development.

Daryna Marchak, Ukraine’s First Deputy Minister of Social Policy, played a central role in crafting the strategy document. Her foremost priority is encouraging the millions who have left Ukraine to return.

The document provides a vision of what we need to do to make every Ukrainian family want to build their life in Ukraine and stay in the country, give birth and raise children here. It aims to create conditions where as many people as possible will choose to be Ukrainian citizens, including those who choose to return to or move to Ukraine from other countries.

A woman and a family should feel safe that they will have the ability to raise children and afford it financially until they grow up. The best thing the state can do to stimulate birth rates is to create a convenient, barrier-free infrastructure for raising children close to home.

[I]t is necessary to provide targeted support to families with children, not only at the stage of childbirth but until the child becomes fully independent. Every family planning to have a child should know that if they face hardship, the state will assist and support them, including financially, until the family overcomes the difficulty.

These are commendable goals, but such a massive repatriation as envisioned by the Ministry cannot happen until the war ends, and is unlikely even then. Nonetheless, it is my fervent hope that whenever peace comes to Ukraine, there will be a rebuilding in accordance with the Ministry’s demographic targets.

Hopefully, enough people will return to Ukraine to at least set that beleaguered land on the road to recovery. Lucrative foreign aid schemes notwithstanding, nation-building begins at home.

Dona Nobis Pacem.

Will Ukraine be able to recover? Let us know your thoughts below.

Louis T. March has a background in government, business, and philanthropy. A former talk show host, author, and public speaker, he is a dedicated student of history and genealogy. Louis lives with his family in the beautiful Shenandoah Valley of Virginia.

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