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The plagues of Ukraine: war and demographic collapse
Eastern Europe’s bottomless pit of perdition, where human beings are cannon fodder, is putting up a brave front. That is today’s Ukraine. People still go to work and do their best to provide for themselves amidst the chaos. A weakened and corrupted government, financed by American taxpayers, still functions.
Keeping up appearances
Evidence of that lingering functionality is the Ministry of Social Policy’s 2 October 2024 press release announcing “Government approves the Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine” and has formulated a “Demographic Development Strategy until 2040”.
The Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine is aimed at implementing sectoral policies to increase the birth rate, reduce premature mortality and return migrants. The document also envisages the creation of cross-cutting conditions for a comfortable life in Ukraine: affordable housing, high-quality public infrastructure, a safe environment, barrier-free environment, inclusive labor market and social cohesion of the population, ensuring equal rights and opportunities, freedom and dignity of citizens.
Dream on. Ukraine’s government cannot effectively address population collapse or do much of anything else besides fight the war and try to keep the water and electricity on. This is the tenth year of a grinding war of attrition, massive civilian exodus and economic ruin. Ukrainian forces are out-manned and out-gunned by orders of magnitude. More than a quarter of the territory within Ukraine’s prewar borders has been lost.
Shortly after Russian forces invaded the Donbas region (February 2022), yours truly reported on “Ukraine’s other battle: demography”.
By January 2022, Ukraine’s population was 41.17 million, having suffered a 25 percent reduction in 32 years. That included the loss of Sevastopol and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. Barring that loss, there would have been 43.4 million Ukrainians, still an almost 22 percent decline. Ukraine’s population shrinks by about 300,000 every year.
In 2018, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin confirmed that roughly 100,000 people were leaving Ukraine every month.
Today, the situation is even worse. While accurate statistics are hard to come by, reliable estimates range from 400,000 to 600,000 Ukrainian military deaths. There are even more wounded, and civilian casualties are horrific.
Death spiral
Ukraine’s war began in 2014. In the pre-Covid years of 2018-2020, two deaths were recorded for every birth. Covid struck in 2021, with 120,000 deaths attributed to the virus. In 2022, the Russians invaded. For the people of Ukraine, it has been one disaster after another.
In August, the Ukrainian National News Agency Ukrinform posted an article headlined: “Mortality in Ukraine three times higher than birth rate”. Dire doesn’t begin to describe it:
During the first half of 2024, 87 655 children were born in Ukraine, and 250,972 people died. During the same period in 2021, before the full-scale war, 132,595 children were born in Ukraine… Currently, there are three deaths per one newborn in Ukraine. In 2018-2020, there were two deaths per child.
Ukraine ranks first in the world in terms of mortality and, at the same time, last in the birth rate.
Ukraine’s last official census (2001) reported the population at 48.5 million; government estimates for mid-2024 were 35.8 million, with 4.7 million of them (13.5 percent) residing in Russian-held areas, leaving 31.1 million “in the territories where public authorities exercise their powers in full." The Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems (National Academy of Sciences) grimly projects a population of 28.9 million by 2041, and 25.2 million a decade after that.
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However, research specialist Svitlana Aksenova of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies cites the “lack of reliable statistical data” though she is certain that Ukraine’s total fertility rate (TFR) is well below one child per female (<1.0) and likely the world’s lowest, surpassing South Korea. (That is also the US Central Intelligence Agency’s assessment).
We will never be able to reach a birth rate of two children per woman. It would be very positive if we could at least return to the level we had in 2012. Back then, the birth rate was one and a half children per woman, or 15 births per 10 women.
This forecast of 25 million people assumes that a large portion of the population that fled the war will not return. It suggests that people will be very hesitant to come back.
Aksenova conceded that “The figure of 25.2 million was provided to illustrate the severity of the demographic problem.” The Ministry hopes to raise Ukraine’s TFR to the 2012 level of 1.5 by 2040. Ukraine’s 2020 (reported) TFR was 1.22.
According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), as of February 2024, there were 3.7 million internally displaced persons and 6.5 million recorded refugees from Ukraine throughout the world. This mass exodus of mostly younger people is a debilitating brain drain, has depopulated many areas and ensured a more rapidly ageing population.
Future prospects
There is talk in Washington about staving off military collapse until after the US presidential election, then bailing on Ukraine to concentrate on the Middle East. There is also talk of establishing a government-in-exile. Will President Zelensky be thrown under the bus? Ukrainian defeat would lock in global multipolarity. I only hope that nobody goes nuclear. Ukraine’s horrific humanitarian disaster is what inspired, finally, the Strategy for Demographic Development.
Daryna Marchak, Ukraine’s First Deputy Minister of Social Policy, played a central role in crafting the strategy document. Her foremost priority is encouraging the millions who have left Ukraine to return.
The document provides a vision of what we need to do to make every Ukrainian family want to build their life in Ukraine and stay in the country, give birth and raise children here. It aims to create conditions where as many people as possible will choose to be Ukrainian citizens, including those who choose to return to or move to Ukraine from other countries.
A woman and a family should feel safe that they will have the ability to raise children and afford it financially until they grow up. The best thing the state can do to stimulate birth rates is to create a convenient, barrier-free infrastructure for raising children close to home.
[I]t is necessary to provide targeted support to families with children, not only at the stage of childbirth but until the child becomes fully independent. Every family planning to have a child should know that if they face hardship, the state will assist and support them, including financially, until the family overcomes the difficulty.
These are commendable goals, but such a massive repatriation as envisioned by the Ministry cannot happen until the war ends, and is unlikely even then. Nonetheless, it is my fervent hope that whenever peace comes to Ukraine, there will be a rebuilding in accordance with the Ministry’s demographic targets.
Hopefully, enough people will return to Ukraine to at least set that beleaguered land on the road to recovery. Lucrative foreign aid schemes notwithstanding, nation-building begins at home.
Dona Nobis Pacem.
Will Ukraine be able to recover? Let us know your thoughts below.
Louis T. March has a background in government, business, and philanthropy. A former talk show host, author, and public speaker, he is a dedicated student of history and genealogy. Louis lives with his family in the beautiful Shenandoah Valley of Virginia.
Image credit: Pexels
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Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-22 02:14:43 +1100To return to Louis T March’s original article, yes one has to agree that poor Ukraine has profound population issues that will take generations to address. However, Louis ignores the fact that Russ has PRECISELY the same problems and even less likelihood of arresting their decline – short of trying to steal Ukraine’s population, by hook – or by crook.
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Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-22 02:09:59 +1100Or is the debate getting too difficult “Jurgen”?
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Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-10-21 23:31:50 +1100Peter, I think it is not ok to use Mercatornet for the promotion of you own blog.
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Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-21 18:34:29 +1100Wars are dead easy to start. Very difficult to finish as the hapless Putin is finding:
https://christiancomment.org/2022/11/28/off-ramp-needed/ -
Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-10-21 17:09:26 +1100Peter, can you please show me, what is “christian” in your Christian Comment- I cannot find it.
What I see, however, is a neoliberal pro-war, do not care for truth narrative.
By the way, what I found almost satirically funny, is your claim that the US is a nation, because it claims to be one nation under God.
It looks to me as if you use that claim to fool the Christian Americans.
How can a nation that operates dozens of military bases in foreign countries, that has fought many wars and bombed many countries violating international law, that occupies foreign countries, whose secret services interfere in the internal processes of foreign countries, that has destroyed the infrastructure of allies, that allows insulting God by its citizens and its large movie industry, a country with probably the highest incarceration rate in the world, a country on the brink of civil war, a country that has to protect its elected presidents from always possible assassination attacks from its own citizens, etc etc etc, be called a one nation under God?
Seriously.
The US used to try to become such a nation. But it failed.
Today, the USA is a country overtaken by non-christian oligarchs and neo-liberal supremacists, whose goal is to conquer the world and grow the US military industrial complex.
Russia, on the other side is returning to its Christian roots. It has liberated itself from the evil powers that ruled the Soviet Union.
The Soviet Union is no more.
New Russia is trying to link to its prerevolutionary history.
There are millions of people currently emigrating to Russia, including some Germans and Americans. For them, the new Russia looks like one nation under God, the land of the future.
The US looks like Gangsta’s
Paradise.
My call to the many good Americans: acknowledge that you have lost your country. Do not accept that and do something – by rebuilding the spiritual foundations of the US of A. -
Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-21 05:22:50 +1100Back to the author of this piece (March), yes Ukraine like Russ has profound demographic issues. It’s likely that Ukraine will be compelled to open up to inwards migration but ironically there are many seeking new lives. An EU – led reconstruction support programme for the next 2 decades and possible entry to EU will help offset the demographic changes, but these ‘solutions’ are simply not open to ‘Russ’. Russ will continue to decline.
(I’m reminded Russ has twice the population of UK and only 20% of the GDP. UK’s population is growing – that of Russ is in freefall.) -
Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-21 05:16:50 +1100Fred/Jurgen/ as one, as one.
True believer. It is unlikely that “facts” or “figures” will shift so this is, in that sense, not an open discussion. There is however a much broader question, usually unaddressed: is “Russia” a country at all? Or is it a collection of other people’s countries? https://christiancomment.org/2023/06/26/the-russian-idea/ .
And does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fit this pattern? -
Fred Johnson commented 2024-10-20 23:34:10 +1100I am glad in a way that my comments only seem to elicit references to enemies from the prolific and verbose Mr Sammons . However, I would ask you to “read the writing on the wall” regarding the conflict in Ukraine and look beyond the wild, perhaps substance-inspired ramblings of Elenskyy to the days beyond the current military action. Ignore the MSM’s and Elenskyy’s ludicrous references to North Korea being the main support of Russia and do recall China’s official pronouncement in February, 2022, “Our relationship with Russia has no limits”. Unlike prevaricating Western leaders, the Chinese actually put some thought into their official statements. One may not like what they say, but are foolish to ignore them.
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Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-20 19:00:35 +1100Noting that we no longer live in ‘the age of empires’, and that ‘Russ’ IS an empire of other people’s stolen countries (as Mr Siemer has openly acknowledged, below) I believe that Ukraine’s stout self-defence, and the broader West’s ongoing support, meet the basic requirements of ‘just war theory’. The ‘outsourcing’ of ‘Russ’ casualties, now, – to hapless North Koreans – suggests that Putin is running out of ideas (and men). On that basis I support my government in it’s position, and that Russia must find its own way out of the mess it has created for itself.
If you follow my earlier link there are co-linked articles (by me) pointing out that Russia needs an ‘off-ramp’. That’s been the position since ‘Russ’ invaded. But an off-ramp involving Ukrainian defeat and any level is not on the cards, I’d suggest.
China has also been made a hostage to fortune on this, by tacitly backing Moscow, only to find there are uncomfortable real-world consequences. But at least China may now think twice about attacking Taiwan. Perhaps this evil ‘Russ’ cloud has a silver lining. -
mrscracker commented 2024-10-20 06:29:26 +1100Times change and the makeup of empires do also.
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Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-10-20 04:16:29 +1100Peter, as I have not defined the word empire, but tried to offer some, I thought, useful background info on Russia, which I thought would be useful for you to understand today’s Russia, my question to you is:
What is your point? -
Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-20 01:54:32 +1100With respect Mr Siemer, we no longer live in the age of empires.
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Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-10-19 23:32:35 +1100Peter, I believe you should read a book about the history of Russia starting from the christianization of the Rus.
Today’s Russia is a result of its history and the topography of that vast land mass.
Before Napoleon, the Mongols, Tatars and Swedes, and Osmanic Turks had conquered or tried to conquer these vast lands, that had no good natural defensive borders. The multiethnic and to some extent centralized structured is a result of the Russian resistance to those conquerors.
Note that many non-russian, non-slavic and even non-christian nations actually freely agreed to become part of Tzarist Russia, basically because they preferred the Tzar over Dzinghis Khan’s successors.
And while the empire was centralized in many ways, the regions at the same time enjoyed a lot of autonomy.
The structure of the Tzarist empire was in many ways similar to Habsburg, also a multiethnic empire.
Note, that many Muslim nations supported the christian Tzar before the revolution. Is it not interesting that for instance the Tartars in Kazan today are, in spite of the fact, that they are the descendents of the former rulers over all of Russia, who became part of the empire, only because of their military defeat, are very pro-Russia today, perhaps more pro-Russia than some Slavic nations?
I believe that Russia, as a multi-ethnic empire, can, over the long-term only rely on the support of its many peoples if they see a benefit that goes beyond economic gains, a benefit that lies in the civilizational realm. Here, Russian christian orthodoxy, literature, science and morality plays an important role.
It is easy to say that the empire is a prison of nations.
However, I have asked a few eastern Europeans personally in their home countries, how they viewed the history under the Habsburgs- and they all said, quickly and without thinking, that those had been the good old times.
Haven’t questioned a Tartar in Kazan yet, but I believe that the facts in Kazan speak for themselves.
By the way, even the majority of the Chechen are now pro-Russia, I believe. -
Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-19 02:56:26 +1100There remains, however, a much broader question, usually unaddressed: is “Russia” a country at all? Or is it a collection of other people’s (stolen) countries?
https://christiancomment.org/2023/06/26/the-russian-idea/
Does ‘Russia’s’ invasion of Ukraine fit this pattern? -
Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-19 02:51:49 +1100It still looks like “My enemy’s enemy is my friend”.
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Fred Johnson commented 2024-10-19 00:46:15 +1100Applauding their efforts to strengthen the Rus and lead from the top morally with traditional values does not involve the war in Ukraine. The responsibility for the huge number of Ukrainians killed and displaced to other countries lies with NATO and the U.S., in particular with Joe Biden’s messenger boy Boris Johnson. In March 2022 this could have all been over but they just had to poke the bear so hard. Now they lose all those lovely minerals in the Donbass too (always remember to follow the money), to the execrable Lindsey Graham’s dismay. As I said earlier, it’s almost over and we can soon move on to the next U.S. caused crisis.
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Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-19 00:28:58 +1100Fred Johnson. “My enemy’s enemy is my friend”?
(And you “applaud their efforts” at the cost of Ukranian lives? -
Fred Johnson commented 2024-10-18 23:32:56 +1100As a member of one of the 47 countries that Russia has referred to as ‘contradicting Russian spiritual and moral values’ I can applaud their efforts to right the ship, as it were. I don’t see the collective West trying that from any leadership perspective, (especially by most of its childless ‘leaders’). It’s rather discouraging watching a civilization wallow in filth and immorality as it sinks; unfortunately change happens rapidly in our ever-connected world, so what used to take a generation or more no longer does. I say give Russia west up to the Dnieper as that will encompass most of the Russian speaking people and those who are culturally Russian. Beyond that the rump of Ukraine can side with the down-spiraling EU. The U.S. is backing away rapidly from their proxy war so it won’t be long now.
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Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-18 18:56:30 +1100Back to ‘Russia’. Google ‘The Russian Idea’ and you get these sorts of ‘hit’:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Idea
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russian-idea-revisited
https://catholicherald.co.uk/putins-take-on-the-russian-idea/
What we make of such discussion is at one level immaterial – and frankly what the ‘Russians’ make of their ideas is also immaterial (except that it periodically causes war). What is material is that so-called ‘Russians’ are today still debating what is this idea of Russia, what does it mean, what are its limits, what are its evident weaknesses and how can the idea be preserved and promoted? All this is undeniable, and the invasion of Ukraine must inevitably be viewed through the prism of ‘The Russian Idea’. -
Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-10-17 18:49:03 +1100Peter, you cannot present a fact or even an interesting thought.
The only thing you have is an ad hominem attack.
But note: you only discredit yourself. -
Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-10-17 18:44:54 +1100Yes, the Ukrainian surrender would be good for Europe. We would avoid ww3, the Russians might even agree to Ukraine joining the EU, I assume, if we would offer Russia access to the European market as well – perhaps by following the Swiss model.
Europe might be able to import Russian energy. The now smaller Ukraine might develop into the next Austria, which, note, is also not in NATO.
Of course, the US would lose, because we would buy less US weapons and stop the import of overpriced US LNG.
Over the long run, the US might benefit as well, if the US citizens would use this opportunity to shrink the military-industrial complex in the US, that had drawn to US in so many wars, most of which were lost.
The useless sacrifice of good mid-western christian boys in some foreign countries would also stop. I believe, this is good news for many US parents. -
Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-17 18:33:08 +1100Mr Siemer is a true believer. It is unlikely that “facts” or “figures” will shift. This is, in that sense, not an open discussion. There is however a much broader question, usually unaddressed: is “Russia” a country at all? Or is it a collection of other people’s countries? https://christiancomment.org/2023/06/26/the-russian-idea/ .
Does ‘Russia’s’ invasion of Ukraine fit this pattern? -
Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-10-17 16:53:48 +1100Steven, the fact that you do not comment on the history before 2022, that I have referred to, indicates to me that you accept those historic facts as correctly described. And I know these are the facts.
This is important because you cannot negotiate a sustainable peace deal without taking into account what led to the war.
Would surrendering be better for Ukraine? Yes, of course!
It would have been better for Ukraine, if they had not allowed the CIA into their country, it would have been better if they had accepted the legitimate interests of their fellow Ukrainians in the east of Ukraine, it would have been better if they had not destroyed and betrayed the Minsk-agreements, it would have been better if the Ukrainians had accepted the deal offered by the Russians in the negotiations early 2022 in Istanbul, and it would have been better had they accepted the offer made by Putin this summer.
Every time, the Ukrainians said no, they lost more Ukrainian lifes and only got a worse offer from the Russians the next time. More no’s will inevitably lead to Ukrainians losing everything.
Holodomor: I am well informed about it, and I also know that Putin knows about that genocide and understands that the hate from the Ukrainians towards the Russians is grown on the memory of the Holodomor. That is why he explained in an article couple years ago, that Russia should not rule over Ukraine, especially Western Ukraine.
But I have to add that the Holodomor was a bolshevik crime, not primarily a Russian crime. Many farmers in southern Russia had also resisted the collectivation and were also murdered and starved to death. The Bolsheviks were a very Jewish organization, just for your info.
No: Most Germans understood that WW2 was NOT a just war. They conceded that the victors of WW1 had treated Germany not fairly, and they were very concerned about a civil war in Germany similar to the one in Russia. There were still hundreds of thousands of Russian refugees in Germany, that told about the brutal atrocities in the Russian civil war. But the war was not a just war!
In 1933, Germany was just starting to grow strongly economically, unemployment fell fast untill 1936 without Hitler doing much. Yet by 1939 Germany was bancrupt, because Hitler had built the Wehrmacht, and that military program was financed with debt.
Once the war had begun, the situation for many common Germans changed, and the quick victory over France got them drunken.
Yet, why did the Germans fight to the bitter end?
I assume they feared the revenge of their enemies.
Last point: Putin is not Hitler. Yet I do understand that that is the only point you have in the end, calling Putin as the new Hitler. But it is simply not true. -
mrscracker commented 2024-10-17 14:52:58 +1100If you can solve that question Mr. Steven the developed world will be very grateful.
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Steven Meyer commented 2024-10-17 14:40:50 +1100mrscracker, so how do you get back to replacement level fertility in any country?
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Steven Meyer commented 2024-10-17 14:39:58 +1100Well, you can always stop a war by surrendering.
Would that be better for the people of Ukraine?
I don’t know. It would be pretty awful but maybe not as awful as continuing the fight. I think memories of the Holodomor are still too strong to make that a palatable option any time soon.
But now let’s ask another question.
Would a Ukrainian surrender be better for the people of Europe? Or, for the United States?
And here I think we know the answer.
The meme “Munich” is overdone. But this is one case where I think it’s appropriate. Ask anyone in the Baltic Republics, in Finland or in Poland.
Yes, it would probably have been better had France and Britain supported the Czechoslovakians against Hitler’s aggression and, for similar reasons, I think it’s better to redouble support for Ukraine.
Jürgen Siemer wrote:
“For the Russians this is a just war, …”
I suspect that for many Germans World War 2 was a “just war”. The Wehrmacht, the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine fought with great courage and determination. I think the death rate among U-boat crews was around 70%. Even the Waffen SS fought bravely. There are cases of Luftwaffe pilots running out of ammunition and ramming the planes that were dropping bombs on their cities.
But all that did not make their cause “just”.
Sometimes people are just misguided.
Oh and your comments about the placement of ballistic missiles displays a profound ignorance of geography, targeting and warning times. -
Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-10-16 04:51:04 +1100Peter, Ukraine is losing.
Your and the often repeated advice from Western politicians to Ukrainians to continue fighting means death for many more Ukrainians and the destruction of their homeland.
You and those Western politicians do not care for the Ukrainians. The only thing they care about is the cost and losses to the Russians.
For the Russians this is a just war, that actually started in 2014, provoked by the CIA supported coup in Kiew, that led to a civil war in Ukraine and to NATO support to the Ukrainian army, which also meant the possibility of NATO ballistic missiles, perhaps nuclear missiles, stationed so close to Moskau that warning times would become too short.
Putin has warned several times the West not to cross certain red lines, and he helped to negotiate the Minsk agreements, whose goal was to find a peaceful compromise for the Russian speaking regions INSIDE Ukraine.
I also point out to the agreement between Ukraine and Russia, allowing the Ukrainians to leave the former Union. That agreement had been negotiated by Putin, when still working under Jelzin!
The West, led by London and Washington, was not honest, it betrayed the Minsk – agreements.
Most countries in the global South and even the Pope understand that.
If you disagree, go to Ukraine yourself, pay for the weapons you need yourself and risk your own little life. -
Peter Sammons commented 2024-10-16 03:49:27 +1100Slightly bemused by the article and certainly bemused by the pro-Russ comments below. So, is Ukraine any more ‘corrupt’ than Russia? And what sort of peace is being advocated? The ‘peace’ that comes from surrender?
Russia’s own demographic is in freefall and this remains one of Putin’s war aims, to annex Ukraine to help mask Russia’s demographic collapse.
I’d urge the Ukrainians to fight on. This is a war Russia cannot “win”. Ukraine’s task is to survive. -
Fred Johnson commented 2024-10-15 23:02:36 +1100Sad story and likely statistically accurate. Some free advice for the good (remaining) people of Ukraine: As soon as you can, once Russia is satisfied with their goals of demilitarization and denazification and you are a neutral country acting as a bulwark between Europe and Russia, get rid of the corruption (good luck), immediately deport anyone who looks like CIA or EU globalists, embrace family friendly policies as noted by Louie, criminalize abortion doctors (not the moms) and completely reject so-called “Western values” that promote amorality or immorality. That’ll be a good start, might even want to move there…..
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Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-10-15 21:05:19 +1100Do not listen to what some Ukrainian government officials say, just observe what the Ukrainians do.
From what I see and hear, most Ukrainians now living in the West seem not to be interested in returning home, except for regular occasional short term visits.
I understand that.
Zelensky, following the commands of his overlords in London and Washington missed the opportunity to negotiate a lasting peace deal with Russia.
So what are the prospects?
A never ending war with Russia, only ending when the Russians reach the border to Poland? Or a small Ukraine reduced to the western regions of Ukraine, that basically would be owned by Black rock?
This does not look like a country for young people.