What are the odds on Trump's Modest Proposal for Gaz-a-Lago succeeding?

Michael Cook

February 07, 2025 10 Reactions

On the face of it, it is utterly preposterous, something like Jonathan Swift's satirical "Modest Proposal" for solving the problem of poverty in 18th century Ireland by selling and eating Irish babies.

Many, if not most, Gazans will refuse to leave their homeland. Hamas will rise again. Jordan and Egypt will refuse to accept them. Reconstruction will cost a motza. Not a single government will support American annexation. It’s a second Nakba, ethnic cleansing on a scale not seen since Arab governments expelled 900,000 Jews after 1945. US-occupied Gaza will be a magnet for terrorists.

But Trump is not delusional. As others have commented, we have to take him seriously, if not literally. What is the point of floating this surreal scheme?

It sweeps aside appeals to history and justice. Unfair? Yup. Inhumane? Maybe not. Trump is a meat-and-potatoes sort of guy, not a pie-in-the-sky sort of guy. A bad deal is better than no deal. “Gaza is a hellhole right now. It was before the bombing started, frankly,” Trump said at the press conference. And on Truth Social he predicted that Gazans would be “resettled in far safer and more beautiful communities, with new and modern homes, in the region. They would actually have a chance to be happy, safe, and free.” Let’s assume that he is sincere. His message to Gazans and the Arabs is that injustice with a house and a job is better than justice in a hellhole.

It exposes the bloviating of the international community about Gaza. Trump’s proposal is mad. But who has a better one? Not the Arabs. Not the United Nations. Not the EU. It is a kick-sand-in-your-face challenge to break Gaza’s cycle of construction and destruction.

It lays bare the lack of solidarity in the Arab world. Egypt and Jordan have refused to resettle the Palestinians, as have all the other Arab states. And no European states have even considered it. They could, you know. In 2015 and 2016, about 2 million refugees surged into Europe from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries. Surely 2.2 million Gazans could squeeze in.

No more business as usual. No more failed orthodoxies. Trump is forcing the international community to make hard decisions, to be creative. If nothing radical is done, Gaza will be a cauldron of misery and hatred for generations to come. Its people deserve better.

Although Prime Minister Netanyahu was grinning with delight during Trump’s press conference, this lunatic proposal may have been a challenge to him as well. Trump could equally have said, You broke it, you fix it. Maybe he will.

As the Wall Street Journal commented in its editorial: “We doubt Mr. Trump has any appetite to send in the 82nd Airborne to occupy Gaza. We know the American people don’t. But perhaps his pitch will cause the rest of the world to do more to support a post-Hamas government in Gaza that would let Palestinians live in a territory that is better than hell on earth.”

Back to Sun Tzu: "Engage with orthodox tactics, win with unorthodox tactics." After generations of misery in Gaza, will Trump’s unorthodox solution create a breakthrough?   

What do you think of Trump’s proposal?    

Michael Cook is editor of Mercator.

Image credit: screenshot of press conference