Mr Trump, please don't cut PEPFAR and AGOA. Africa needs them

Mathew Otieno

November 22, 2024 6 Reactions

As many have conceded, PEPFAR is arguably America’s best project since World War II. Per dollar spent, it has probably saved more lives than any other American government project and has, in the process, afforded many poor African countries the chance to focus on other pressing developmental priorities, without being dragged down by the healthcare and workforce costs of AIDS.

It should still be wound down, but this should be done slowly and deliberately, with great care taken to protect and sustain its marvellous achievements. Of course, the Trump administration should also make sure that none of the funding is diverted to anything other than AIDS management.

Efficient trade

On the other hand, the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA), while it seemingly stands on a stronger foundation because it is, as the name suggests, an act of Congress, is in fact a lot more vulnerable than PEPFAR. As it turns out, the act is up for renewal, or possible elimination, in 2025.

Given how fondly Mr Trump spoke of tariffs during his campaign – going so far as to say the word is his favourite on multiple occasions – it is quite possible that he could let AGOA lapse. The programme, after all, grants entire classes of products from Sub-Saharan Africa tariff-free access to the American market.

To replace AGOA, Mr Trump could then try to craft bespoke trade deals with individual countries. However, there are 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, and their combined trade with America is so minuscule that he would be wasting his time with that approach.

Alternatively, he could make trade deals with regional economic communities around the continent, but these blocs are also in different stages of integration and are weighed down by a great deal of internal politics, which would significantly complicate his deal-making efforts.

Given the numbers involved, the most efficient approach Mr Trump and his administration can take is probably to push for a reauthorisation of AGOA, with necessary changes to make it more effective at enhancing trade with Africa, which is home to many resources that America will need for the foreseeable future, and for which China is a formidable contender.

Mr Trump’s first term wasn’t nearly as deleterious to Africa as the chattering masses – who performatively wrung their hands at his “sh*thole countries” comment – would have predicted. Not only did he have a largely non-interventionalist stance towards the continent, but he also ended American funding for the murder of Africa’s unborn babies, and decoupled woke nonsense from American development aid.

His re-election could bring back this common-sense approach to the continent. Perhaps, if he’s persuaded to take the continent a bit more seriously, he could also engage in meaningful ways to counter China’s hold here. He could, for instance, push for the completion of the Lobito Corridor project, and initiate several similar mega-infrastructure projects across the continent to bring it closer to America.

But even if he does none of the above, he should take special care to protect, if not promote, PEPFAR and AGOA. Perhaps internal efficiencies could be found for both initiatives, but no good can come from eliminating either.

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Mathew Otieno is a Kenyan writer, blogger and dilettante farmer. Until 2022, he was a research communications coordinator at a university in Nairobi, Kenya. He now lives in rural western Kenya, near the shores of Lake Victoria, from where he's pursuing a career as a full-time writer while concluding his dissertation for a master's degree. His debut novel, A Question of Time, is available on Kindle.

Image credit: The White House/Wikimedia Commons