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The population bomb has imploded
No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children
by Paul Morland | Forum, 2024, 264 pages
The spectre of depopulation, this book argues, is haunting Europe and many other places and is reflected in labour shortages, ballooning government debt, growing welfare costs, pressure for rising taxes, and a lack of youth, creativity and innovation.
Making the case for children, author Paul Morland contends, has never been more urgent. While the number of people on the planet is still growing, the rate of growth has halved since the 1970s and is continuing to fall.
Morland, who is a British demographer, offers striking statistics to illustrate his arguments about population ageing. In Italy in 1950, there were about seventeen persons under ten for every one person over eighty. Today, the two groups are matched roughly one to one.
In the mid-1960s, Japan had more than nine people of working age to every one person of retirement age. Three decades from now, it will have barely one and a half people of working age for each retiree.
According to the author, no United Kingdom government has ever suggested, explicitly or implicitly, that the fertility rate should be higher, despite the fact that the UK has had sub-replacement fertility for half a century.
Depopulation crisis
In the past, there was great anxiety about "over-population", and this drew on the warnings of Thomas Malthus over 200 years ago. Expressions like "population bomb" and "population explosion" were used by modern Malthusians like Paul Ehrlich, and concerns about population growth fuelled aggressive and sometimes coercive family planning programmes in developing countries. China developed its notorious "one-child" policy, while India introduced forced sterilisation programmes under Indira Gandhi.
Perspectives have gradually changed over the years, and there is now a greater focus on the risks of depopulation.
While some have acknowledged that there could be population ageing problems in the long term, Morland suggests that the "long term" has finally arrived and is reflected, for example, in estimates that Japan could face a worker shortfall of eleven million by 2040.
We can’t just "muddle through", Morland maintains, as the crisis is deeper, wider and longer than anything in the past.
He explains today’s low fertility by reference to causes such as secularism, arguing that "there seems to be a strong connection between societies losing their faith and losing their fertility".
Other factors include a drop in fertility rates in certain ethnic groups, increasing education, giving women the opportunity to pursue other interests outside the family, economics (as people get richer, they have fewer children), and worries about the impact of climate change on the future of the planet.
Morland discusses feminist concerns about "natalism" and argues in favour of "the rights women have gained over recent decades". He adds that it is important to listen to what women actually say they want, which is often more children than they actually have today – the gap being accounted for by various barriers to having children, such as a lack of flexibility in career organisation and in the workplace. He adds that there is a need to celebrate parenthood, and not just motherhood.
Abortion receives surprisingly brief attention in a reflection on population ageing and depopulation. In Ireland alone, there were an estimated 10,000 abortions in 2023, that is, between one-sixth and one-fifth of the number of registered births, while similar or higher figures are reported in many other countries. Clearly, abortion causes the loss of unique unborn lives, and is a fundamental moral issue as well as having demographic implications.
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Morland’s nuanced chapter on immigration argues that attracting immigrants to reverse the effects of population ageing is not a realistic, long-term solution. For a country like China, it is not even a short-term solution:
"China’s size means it would require vast numbers of migrants, while its relative poverty, even today, ensures it is unlikely to be able to attract them."
He also mentions the problem of "biological imperialism" and the severe loss of human capital in the countries from which migrants come.
Reasons for hope
Morland devotes a chapter to environmental concerns and their possible impact on falling fertility. While endorsing efforts to reduce our carbon emissions, he expresses some scepticism about predictions of climate calamity and points to recent progress in areas such as food production and access to clean water. He also refers to The Ultimate Resource (1981 and 1996) by the American economist Julian Simon, which maintained that human inventiveness, often fuelled by population growth, is humanity’s "ultimate resource".
The respected French demographer Gérard-Francois Dumont has argued recently against Malthusian pessimism and stressed the need for hope in the future. He pointed out that the eight-fold increase in the human population in the two centuries or so since the time of Malthus has come not from disordered attitudes towards fertility, but from gradual and sometimes unexpected advances, notably those in agricultural production (La Nef, June 2024).
Criticising Malthusian pessimism doesn’t mean ignoring environmental problems or the need to live simply. In Laudato Si' in 2015, Pope Francis highlighted the need "to monitor the harm done to nature and the environmental impact of our decisions." (par. 117)
Morland’s book doesn’t offer any "silver bullet" solutions to population ageing and depopulation. There is a chapter on the possible contribution of governments in areas such as welfare payments and tax breaks, and there are case studies on Hungary, Australia and China. The author examines the possible influence of "cultural icons" such as the Christian Churches, or celebrity role models, or even of big business as a purveyor of positive messages about human fertility. There is a role for all of us, he contends, in acknowledging that there is a population ageing problem.
This essay by an academic demographer sets out the issues clearly and is an important contribution to public debate on a critical issue. It is clearly aimed at a wide audience and forgoes academic tools like graphs and tables. However, as there are many statistics here, a sparing use of such tools would have been helpful in the presentation of trends over time.
The arguments covered here could be complemented and strengthened by a philosophical reflection on the importance of Christian hope. Caritas in Veritate (2009), Benedict XVI’s wide-ranging discussion of human development, maintained that development must include not just material growth but also spiritual growth and expressed concern about the ‘lack of hope’ into which so many people fall. He added:
"The development of individuals and peoples… requires new eyes and a new heart, capable of rising above a materialistic vision of human events."
What do you think of Morland's analyses? Comment below.
Tim O’Sullivan taught healthcare policy at third level in Ireland and has a PhD in social policy from University College Dublin.
Image credit: Pexels
Have your say!
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Paul Bunyan commented 2024-08-08 16:42:03 +1000Apology accepted. It’s always helpful to have someone willing to listen and talk to. Often, having someone to listen to you and share your burdens is enough to prevent a suicide.
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mrscracker commented 2024-08-08 07:06:29 +1000Just a PS, I saw that there was an article back in March in the Lancet predicting that 97% of nations will have non-replacement level fertility rates by 2100:
“Over the coming decades, global fertility is predicted to decline even further, reaching a TFR of around 1.8 in 2050, and 1.6 in 2100—well below the replacement level. By 2100, only six of 204 countries and territories (Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan) are expected to have fertility rates exceeding 2.1 births per female. In 13 countries, including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Saudi Arabia, rates are even predicted to fall below one child per female. " -
mrscracker commented 2024-08-06 23:53:34 +1000There are some very large & posh doublewide trailer homes Mr. Steven.
:)
Truthfully, mobile homes are an affordable alternative to brick & mortar houses. Even if you’re not blessed with parents who can lend you their backyard there are plenty of other places to park them. Zoning laws in more bougie communities can become a problem though & if you live in “Tornado Alley” it’s a riskier type of housing for sure. -
mrscracker commented 2024-08-06 23:46:02 +1000Mr. Bunyan, thank you for the clarification. I’m very glad to hear that. I found your comments sad not just because self harm was mentioned but because you seemed to imply that life was not worth the day to day risks involved.
At that point we shouldn’t even want to get out of bed in the morning. That’s what I found so sad.
I do hope & pray you have blessed day today.
:) -
Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-08-06 20:19:10 +1000Dear Paul, I really did not intended to sound condescending. However, I became really worried about you, when you introduced the suicidal aspect into the discussion.
Please, accept my apologies. -
Steven Meyer commented 2024-08-06 15:50:03 +1000Again to mrscracker,
I’ve also got nothing against Latin Mass. It’s beautiful. But I’m one of the vanishing breed who took Latin as a high school subject. -
Steven Meyer commented 2024-08-06 15:38:48 +1000mrscracker,
LOL, just being a bit sardonic. :)
Nothing against affordable housing. On a more serious note:
I grew up in a smallish house near a wood. We kids all regarded the wood as our playground. It was absolutely marvellous.
In fact traffic in our suburb was so infrequent that we used to play cricket in the street. When a car approached we stood aside, let it pass, and continued the game. The wicket was an empty Coca Cola box.
In Johannesburg we lived near an enormous park known as Emmarentia Dam. Our kids had plenty of room in which to run wild.
It’s one thing to raise kids in a trailer in a rural area with lots of room. Another to live in a trailer sized apartment in a built up urban area.
I suspect one way of making it easier for parents is lots of parkland in urban areas with qualified staff to look after the kids. It would have the side effect of encouraging more outdoor activity. Will never happen of course because the real estate lobby is too powerful. Capitalism in action.. -
Paul Bunyan commented 2024-08-06 13:19:28 +1000mrscracker, Jurgen, I’m not depressed or suicidal. Just because I don’t plan to have children doesn’t mean I live with abject depression and misery. It is extremely condescending for you to make such an assumption.
MercatorNet’s readership should look at issues from more than one angle. If they took an objective, dispassionate look at this issue, they would realize that population growth has no long-term benefits.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2024-08-04/who-will-pay-for-the-cost-of-overheated-humans-in-the-age-of-climate-change/?mc_cid=38253c9949&mc_eid=86eb10201f&fbclid=IwY2xjawEedWRleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHRXMENnztk2ilKKM9bUZr2FOa855GmbCabU6h7JUO3BBqDrjgWKih3LZEQ_aem_N9t4A-Y6UmIzFsaDjsiPdg -
mrscracker commented 2024-08-06 04:04:18 +1000Mr. Bunyan, I’m so sorry to read your comments. That’s very sad. I hope things go well for you today & I know I’m not the only one here remembering you in prayer. God bless!
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Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-08-06 02:48:51 +1000Dear Paul: what happened to you? If you are suffering, really suffering, let me assure you, you do not have to be alone.
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Paul Bunyan commented 2024-08-05 22:34:46 +1000It would make more sense to prohibit reproduction completely. Since no one can consent to be born, no one should be allowed to create more humans.
You’ll probably ask me why I haven’t taken my own life yet. There’s a difference between starting a new life and continuing your own life.
Life may be worth continuing, but given the suffering and risk of genetic illnesses, cancer, kidnapping etc, I would argue that life is never worth starting. -
Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-08-05 22:32:34 +1000Paul, do you not know, that everybody has a natural, you could also say God-given right for his physical integrity?
That is the reason for doctors asking for consent before operating the patient.
A forced sterilization is a violation of such basic right! -
Paul Bunyan commented 2024-08-05 21:59:20 +1000And yet the Indians did not commit genocide after their forced sterilizations.
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Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-08-05 20:51:55 +1000Paul, it is disgusting to hear you defending forced sterilisations.
The Nazis did the same and justified it with their evolutionary world view. And not much later they began murdering people. -
Michael Cook followed this page 2024-08-05 20:48:40 +1000
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mrscracker commented 2024-08-05 20:36:37 +1000For goodness sakes Mr. Steven. Granted, I probably live in a Thirdish World part of the First World but what would you possibly have against affordable housing?
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Paul Bunyan commented 2024-08-05 20:26:09 +1000Jurgen, forced sterilization is a tragedy, that is true. It is also true that in India and China, they were essential.
Without them, there would have been countless more abortions, and countless more suffering from famine and poverty. Have you ever seen the poverty rate fall when the birth rate increases? Of course not. Poverty leads to increased births, and increased births lead to increased poverty. It’s a vicious cycle, one that can only be escaped by educating women. When women are educated, they naturally tend to have fewer children. -
Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-08-05 19:07:58 +1000Forced sterilization is a crime. What do you not understand here?
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Paul Bunyan commented 2024-08-05 15:55:25 +1000Jurgen, sterilization is not abortion. Please stop trying to trivialize actual war crimes and genocide by comparing them to something like sterilization. Sterilization is far less harmful, and in countries like India and China, it is absolutely essential for social well-being.
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Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-08-05 15:53:49 +1000I would appreciate if we called the forced sterilisations and abortions in India and China what they are: A grave crime and murder.
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Jürgen Siemer commented 2024-08-05 15:52:02 +1000Two years ago I did some research on demographic data. The data from the UN are mostly used in analysis of global trends. The UN get their data from national statistical government organisations, and they use their own models for predictions.
In my work I was surprised when I saw differences between actual recent data between the UN and national statistics, where the UN data we’re almost always significantly higher. Italy, for instance, that published generally reliable statistics reported population data that were significantly lower than what the UN had reported for Italy. Looking into other countries it looked as if UN data we’re always higher.
Furthermore, many countries are interested to report higher population data, i.e. to get more development aid or for political reasons.
In the case of China, there is a statistics professor who claims that the population of China was, according to his analysis, at least 200 Mio people lower than what the government had reported. -
Steven Meyer commented 2024-08-05 15:00:25 +1000The population bomb exploded as forecast in the 1960s Fortunately it was only a 15 KT Hiroshima size bomb, not the 57 MT Tsara Bomba that was feared.
So here we are at 8 billion plus and still counting. In 1960 it was +- 3 billion.
Born in 1945, I have seen global population more than triple in my life time. If I manage to stick around another decade I could see it quadrupling.
Population increasing more than 3X in the lifetime of one man was never going to be sustainable. no matter what some British demographer has to say. Also, the problems of global warming, and other environmental problems are very real and should not be minimised. Our real problem is that population did explode and now needs to contract. Whatever the problems of an ageing / declining population, they are more tractable than those posed by a population that grows indefinitely.
I could wish the decline would be more gradual and evenly spread but I’ll take the win.
But what can we do to slow population decline – to bring fertility back up to around 1.9 – 2.0? (2.1 is roughly replacement rate)
And why is it declining so precipitately?
Everyone believes they know the reasons for the decline.
If only we all believed in God getting incarnated as an itinerant preachers performing miracles we’d have more babies.
or
If only childcare was cheaper or employers were more generous with maternity leave or housing would be more affordable or .or, or, or…. ?
Louis T March asks whether contemporary capitalism is to blame. while mrscracker thinks we should all go to Latin Mass and live in trailers parked outside our parents’ homes.
I don’t pretend to know. I’m reasonably certain economic pressures play a role and unless these are addressed fertility will not recover. But I would call that a necessary, not sufficient, response.
A lot of people point to the Haredi in Israel. But their lifestyles are subsidised on a scale that I do not think any other government would consider.
In the US various Mennonite groups have high fertility but I doubt these can be replicated on a large scale. Something like the Mormons are probably the best that ban achieved at scale and even their fertility is falling. It’s hidden because Mormons who don’t have many kids tend to drop out. Still, Mormon numbers are growing.
Whatever, I do think only a combination of a more child-friendly economic system plus a change in Zeitgeist of some sort is required. I think you’ll need both.
Many people worry about the cost of caring for the elderly. Don’t. The level of care will decline and euthanasia will become the norm. That’s the way it goes.
I also wouldn’t worry too much about insufficient workers. I expect semi-autonomous robots to start replacing humans at scale in the 2030s.
And, finally, there’s ectogenesis. I expect this to be the norm by 2070.
One way or another, we aren’t going to go extinct because we don’t make babies. -
Paul Bunyan commented 2024-08-05 13:34:54 +1000The population is still growing and not expected to fall until at least 2050. This article is full of fear-mongering nonsense.
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