Russia’s ongoing demographic disaster

Last time in this space, I reported on Ukraine’s demographic collapse. It is a heart-wrenching tragedy in a land devastated by a perfect storm of war, out-migration, corruption, and demoralisation.  

Whenever Ukraine is mentioned, Russia comes to mind. The two countries share a rich Slavic heritage, yet are at war with one another. War is an abomination, and I can only imagine how folks in Ukraine or the Middle East feel about it. As for the war profiteers… don’t get me started.

Russia’s critical challenge

Mercator readers know (see here and here) that Russia also faces demographic collapse, though not as rapidly as Ukraine. At least Russia’s government is strongly pronatalist. President Putin has made family formation a national priority.

This week, the UK Independent ran a short piece headlined: “Putin introduces bizarre new law to tackle Russia’s declining birth rate: Russia’s birth rate had slid to its lowest in a quarter of a century”. Couldn’t resist that clickbait. “Bizarre?” Bring it on.

Putin has introduced bizarre new laws in Russia that will ban anything suggesting a child-free life is attractive.

Laws that would outlaw “propaganda” discouraging Russians from having children were overwhelmingly approved on Thursday in the first of three readings in the lower house of parliament.

The Russian president, who portrays Russia as a bastion of “traditional values” locked in an existential struggle with a decadent West, has encouraged women to have at least three children to secure the demographic future of the country.

Anti-natalist propaganda in the guise of advertising, social welfare schemes, etc., can be effective in discouraging family formation. In today’s media-driven world of soundbites and images, depicting couples having it all – career, travel, big house, nice cars – without children sends a message. Modernity’s materialist fixation is viewed as a Western import, and Russia is at war with the West militarily, economically and culturally. With disastrously declining fertility, they’re pushing back.

Propaganda

“Outlawing propaganda?” Sounds like a certain Western regime's full-throttle campaign against “disinformation” or “hate speech” emanating from “anti-government” or “pro-Trump” websites. Is this Russian initiative a mirror image of Western political correctness, i.e., free speech for me, but not for thee? Or is it an earnest attempt to encourage bringing children into the world?

icon

Join Mercator today for free and get our latest news and analysis

Buck internet censorship and get the news you may not get anywhere else, delivered right to your inbox. It's free and your info is safe with us, we will never share or sell your personal data.

Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin is the legislation’s chief advocate:

It is important to protect people, primarily the younger generation, from having the ideology of childlessness imposed on them on the internet, in the media, in movies, and in advertising. We continue to form a unified legal framework for the protection of children, families, and traditional values.

Volodin further accused the “child-free movement” of devaluing families through spreading a pernicious ideology promoting the “conscious refusal to have children.”

Deputy Speaker Anna Kuznetsova went further, calling the legislation an integral element of Russia’s “national security strategy.”

Demographic crisis

In late September, the government suspended tracking population changes on the All-Russian Population Census. A wartime measure, this will delay reporting of negative numbers from combat deaths and falling fertility. No government wants to be the bearer of bad tidings.  

EuroNews just reported: “Kremlin distressed as Russia's 'catastrophic' birth rate drops to its lowest in quarter century”.

Russia's birth rate is at its lowest since 1999 with the number of live births falling under 100,000 in June, causing concern in Moscow over what has been described as a severe population downswing.

From January to June of 2024, 599,600 children were born in Russia — 16,000 less than the same period in 2023, according to data published by Russia's governmental statistic agency Rosstat.

According to Eurasian country risk analyst Alex Kokcharov, pronatalist financial incentives are no longer working:

With the war continuing in its third year, and now directly impacting Russian territory, money is not the only factor. With the security situation in border regions uncertain, families are delaying decisions on having children.

Last summer Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko warned that if current trends continue, Russia’s labour force could be short 2.4 million workers by 2030.

Nina Ostanina of the State Duma Committee for Family Protection compared boosting fertility to Russia’s “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, calling for a “special demographic operation” to boost Russian birth rates.

Previous propaganda pushback

This is not the first time the Russian government has attacked “propaganda.” Ten years ago, there were sweeping initiatives to curb “glorification of alcohol.” Slick video ads with sexy up-and-comers knocking back shots of vodka are long gone:

In an attempt to curb Russia’s chronic alcohol abuse problems (the country has double the WHO critical level of use), the State Duma, Russia’s lower house, passed in mid-July a bill restricting alcohol advertising on a wide range of platforms. This measure will be implemented in a two-fold process:

Since 23rd July 2012 alcohol advertising has been banned on billboards, television, radio, the internet and on public transport (including railways, in bus stations and airports).

From 1st January 2013 the ban will extend its scope to also cover print media.

Russia treats booze like the US treats cigarettes: they’re available, but not to minors, and most advertising is banned.  

In 2022, “LGBT propaganda” was outlawed:

Russia’s parliament has passed… a law banning “LGBT propaganda”… as Moscow ramps up its conservative push at home amid the war in Ukraine.

The bill criminalises any act regarded as an attempt to promote what Russia calls “non-traditional sexual relations” – in film, online, advertising or in public – and expands on a notorious 2013 law that banned “propaganda of nontraditional sexual relations” among minors and was used to detain gay rights activists.

Under the new law, individuals can be fined up to 400,000 roubles (£5,400) and organisations 5m roubles (£68,500) for “propagandising nontraditional sexual relations”, while foreigners could face up to 15 days’ arrest and expulsion from Russia.

Several years ago, President Putin remarked that Western promotion of LGBTQ was “moving towards open satanism”. Many Russians view it as a Western import.

Propaganda undoubtedly influences social attitudes and mores. Those running the Russian Federation remember the days of Soviet Communism where society was so saturated with regime propaganda that people were inured to it (as is becoming the case with woke propaganda in the West).

A key lesson lost on late-stage Soviet commissars was that if propaganda is completely devoid of truthfulness (effective propaganda has an element of truth), it rings hollow. That’s exactly what happened. People didn’t buy it.

Pray for peace and all blessings for the people of Russia and Ukraine.


What do you make of Russia's policies? Comment below.


Louis T. March has a background in government, business, and philanthropy. A former talk show host, author, and public speaker, he is a dedicated student of history and genealogy. Louis lives with his family in the beautiful Shenandoah Valley of Virginia.

Image credit: Pexels


 

 

Showing 8 reactions

Please check your e-mail for a link to activate your account.
  • Steven Meyer
    commented 2024-10-30 23:21:05 +1100
    Jurgen Siemer

    We’ll see if it translates into more babies.
  • Jürgen Siemer
    commented 2024-10-30 17:47:54 +1100
    The US fertility rate just dropped below 1.8.

    The fertility rate in Germany has recently dropped below 1.4.

    The fertility rate in the Russian federation is reported to be above 1.4.

    But there are news from Russia, that, from a demographic point of view, are very positive: significantly more women in the Russian federation are now marrying earlier, below the age of 25. This is a recent development.

    Strengthening the family and supporting young couples is fundamentally the right approach.
  • Jürgen Siemer
    commented 2024-10-30 17:38:28 +1100
    John, have you not read the article here on Mercatornet about the Finnish Grandmother?

    In Germany we have seen Police Swat commandos searching private homes of “anti-vaxxers” at 4:30 in the morning, a prominent “Goldbug” famous for his criticism of the economic policies if the German government stopped at a German airport, searched and held captive for a full day without telling his family who waited for him, there are cases of university professors and protestant pastors losing their jobs for stating too conservative opinions on various issues.

    There are more examples.
  • Steven Meyer
    commented 2024-10-30 14:34:10 +1100
    John Mattras,

    People of March’s ilk want to see Putin as a hero standing firm against the LGBTQIXYZ+++ “menace”

    It’s all smoke and mirrors.
  • John Mattras
    commented 2024-10-30 10:19:44 +1100
    How, exactly, is any positive portrayal of a single option or being open about one’s LGBTQ+ nature hate speech, untruthful or propaganda? Even those who combat actual hate speech and misinformation in the west are not advocating to arrest, incarcerate or kill those who spread it. And perhaps sending hundreds of thousands of young men to their deaths or serious injury and hundreds of thousands more to exile outside the country and turning the state into an autocracy have more to do with the continual decline of the Russian birth rate than some war against imaginary Western “propaganda.”
  • Peter Sammons
    commented 2024-10-30 03:37:30 +1100
    Praying for peace? Yes. But praying for peace with justice, which may not be what Russophiles generally seek. I’m unsure about the statistics here. Assuming that many Ukranian refugees eventually find their way back to Ukraine, one might hope (pray!) that fertility levels recover. But will they in ‘Russia’?
  • Steven Meyer
    commented 2024-10-29 12:37:28 +1100
    “Last summer Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko warned that if current trends continue, Russia’s labour force could be short 2.4 million workers by 2030.”

    This doesn’t make much sense unless you’re intending to put seven year olds to work in 2030 :)

    According to macrotrends.net the Russian fertility rate is not too bad, about 1.8 births per woman.

    According to CIA World Factbook it’s about 1.5 for 2024.

    Which of these are closer to reality I don’t know. Certainly any numbers issued by the Putin regime should be taken with a grain of salt.

    I’ll be interested to see what effect, if any, these new laws have.

    Yesterday’s hero, Victor Orban, has done his best with no success. Will Putin fare any better?

    Thoughts?
  • Louis T. March
    published this page in The Latest 2024-10-29 12:03:31 +1100