My interest in demography blossomed back in the days when Paul and Anne Ehrlich’s The Population Bombthesis, a Malthusian gloom-and-doom scenario, was all the rage. “Population explosion” was conventional wisdom. Yet under the radar, demography nerds were finding that population collapse was in the cards. But that was not the “accepted” view; the media-savvy Ehrlichs were dining out predicting mass starvation ahead because of – drum roll – population explosion.

Today demography news is posted 24/7. It is all we can do to keep up. While global population is projected to begin declining sometime from 2060 to 2080, Global North countries are already shrinking. However, there are positive developments, three of which are worthy of note.

South Korea turnaround?

South Korea is a demographic basket case. Replacement-level total fertility rate (TFR) is 2.1. In 2o23 South Korea’s was 0.72, the world’s lowest. At that TFR, each successive generation would be 34 percent of the previous one. There are more people over 60 than under 18. Adult diapers outsell baby diapers. The leading cause of death among youth is suicide. In the capital Seoul, more than half the people live alone.

Gideon Lewis-Kraus discusses all this in a superb post in The New Yorker, “The Apocalyptic Decline in Birthrates,” a deep dive into the South Korean birth dearth well worth reading Lewis-Kraus’s money quote: “Population loss is an apocalypse on an installment plan.” So true.

The good news: South Korea’s 2024 TFR was 0.75, a 4 percent increase. While still the world’s lowest, hope springs eternal. The government wants to bring the TFR up to 1.0 by 2030 and keep going. Why the uptick? Remember Booyoung?

[T]he construction giant Booyung Group announced that it is paying $75,000 (100 million won) to employees each time their family has a baby.

Booyung’s 84-years-young Chairman Lee Joon-keun unabashedly advocates “direct financial support” to families. To date, Booyung has paid a total of $5.25 million to employees who have welcomed 70 babies… [T]he company has built nearly 300,000 homes since its founding in 1983.

Under the Booyung plan, employees with three or more children will have the option of receiving a benefit of $225,000 in either cash or rental housing, provided the government makes land available for construction of these units.

Booyoung’s Chairman isn’t fooling around. While bureaucrats dutifully researched, analyzed and tweaked family policy, Lee, a shrewd businessman and patriotic pronatalist, realized that piecemeal measures such as tax breaks, etc. were not game changers. He put big money on the line. His bold move shocked the country. No doubt he is happy to see headlines like “South Korea's policy push springs to life as world's lowest birthrate rises.”

Nam Hyun-jin, 35, who had her second daughter last August, said she has seen a social shift, driven largely by the government's broadened policy support and more companies joining the efforts.

"The society as a whole is encouraging childbirth more than five years ago when we had our first child," Nam said.

And, more importantly, "it's the company culture of encouraging childbirth that is providing huge help," said Nam, whose employer - Booyoung - started to give out 100 million won ($70,000) from last year to its employees for childbirth bonus.

Booyoung’s initiative was followed by other corporations, and the government is exploring similar incentives for small business employees.

The Booyoung baby boom spurred government to focus on three areas critical to family formation: work-family balance (South Koreans are woefully workaholic), childcare and housing. This year US$13.76 billion is budgeted for family-friendly measures, up 22 percent from 2024. Parental leave time eligible for full salary has doubled from three to six months. Parental leave time with job security was increased 50 percent to 18 months.

There has undoubtedly been a paradigm shift. Perhaps with the collapse of globalist ideology and a less war prone multipolar world, incentivizing family life will rightfully become a matter of national security.

While there is strong anti-natalist sentiment in South Korea, a pronatalist government, media and business sector will change attitudes. According to Morgan Stanley’s Kathleen Oh, "The good news is that the sense of urgency appears real, with authorities moving toward structural reforms and away from short-term fixes."

Quarterly data showed the number of second newborns, such as Nam's, jumped 12% in the second half of 2024, versus an 11% rise in first-born babies.

Be thankful for small blessings. With the world’s lowest TFR, a 4 percent increase in one year, albeit from a very low baseline, is heartening. Hopefully this is the beginning of an upward trend. Should that happen, future generations can thank Lee Joon-keun for a Korean national revival.  

Christianity comeback?

Ten years ago the Pew Research Center projected that by mid-century, Muslims would be 30 percent of the world’s population (2.76 billion), a 22 percent increase in 35 years. The world’s Christian percentage would remain static at 31 percent (2.92 billion). Hindus will stay at 15 percent (1.38 billion), while unaffiliated will decline by a fifth to 13 percent (1.23 billion). The lion’s share of religiously unaffiliated people will be in East Asia. Major European countries will have substantial Muslim minorities. Already, 21.5 percent of newborns in France have Arab-Muslim names. Pew forecasts Germany’s Muslim population at 17.4 million by 2050, representing 19.7 percent of the population.

The good news: recent Pew data finds that while Americans identifying as Christians bottomed out at 60 percent in 2021 (from 78 percent in 2007), it has rebounded 5 percent to 63. “Americans have stopped leaving Christianity:”

We’re in a moment of resurgent religious conservatism. The Supreme Court has anointed prayer in public schools. Elon Musk said he believes in the teachings of Jesus. Religious tradwives reign supreme on Instagram. The right says it all amounts to a “vibe shift.”

Newsweek:

Samuel Perry, a professor of sociology at the University of Oklahoma, told Newsweek the cultural return to Christianity may be part of a larger conservative cultural shift, noting that it has coincided with sharp turns to the right on issues like gender and race.

"My guess is that's more what's being reflected in the current plateauing of Christianity's decline in the U.S. It's the Christianity of ethno-traditionalism and populism. The Christianity of MAGA."

Yes, there is a “vibe shift,” evident even here in Virginia’s Shenandoah Valley. While church attendance is up, PC churches pushing social gospel are hemorrhaging members. The last US elections were an indicator of change, not so much as a referendum on the two presidential candidates, but rather a repudiation of state-mandated wokeism, DEI and other nonsense. The fact that Donald Trump won – after a 2020 defeat, two impeachments, 99 felony charges (34 convictions), nonstop nine-year negative media, assassination attempts – means something is afoot that has far-reaching soci0-cultural implications.

According to Rice University Professor Michael Emerson, "We are in a pendulum swing toward faith and involvement in religious communities. I fully expect that trend to continue at least through this decade.”

Hungary strives

One of the first countries to sound the birth dearth alarm was Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government strives mightily to boost fertility with limited success. Hungary’s 2013 TFR was 1.33. Today it is 1.56. The country’s goal is to reach replacement-level (2.1) by 2030. Mercator has closely followed Hungary. See here, here and here.

The good news: In February Prime Minister Orbán announced an overhaul of the taxation system, proclaiming Hungary a “tax haven for families.”

“[F]amily is the most important thing in the world.” “All these measures – fundamentally, changes affecting the system of taxation – are based on this simple sentence,” he [Orbán] said, adding that those who decide to have children should not be worse-off financially than those who do not.

From this October, mothers with three children will receive life-long income tax exemption, mothers with two children under the age of forty years will stop paying personal income tax from 1 January, mothers between the ages of 40 and 50 will be next from 2027, while after this, they will reach the pensionable age.

He said over a period of four years, a unique taxation system will come into being which has families at its centre. Hungary will be a tax haven for families where young people will have the opportunity to choose family as a career… The women, the girls have already been born who – once this system is completed – will grow up in such a way that they will not pay income tax when entering adulthood and the realm of work and will likewise not pay income tax upon exiting as pensioners. There will be millions of them, Mr Orbán pointed out, highlighting that if the western world wants to solve its problems not with immigration and migration, but by resorting to its own resources and families, they will have to switch to the kind of mentality that Hungary is now trying its hand at.

Amen. Rising public consciousness of population collapse and the demand for family-friendly initiatives has government fully engaged. I’m hopeful about Hungary.

* * * * * * * 

“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” State of flux defines our world; the present is an era of profound social change and tectonic global realignment. When the dust settles, we’ll see the inevitable resurgence of traditional values because, per Mercator’s mission:

Human beings have inherent dignity and transcendent value and promoting human dignity is at the centre of everything we do.

That is our moral North Star, shepherding us to take heart and despair not. Keep the faith and remain steadfast in stewardship of this legacy for generations unborn. Always remember it is often “darkest before the dawn.”

Let us, then, be up and doing,
   With a heart for any fate;
Still achieving, still pursuing
   Learn to labor and to wait.
       – Longfellow, “A Psalm of Life”

What do you think about Hungary’s plan to become a tax haven for families?

Louis T. March has a background in government, business, and philanthropy. A former talk show host, author, and public speaker, he is a dedicated student of history and genealogy. Louis lives with his family in the beautiful Shenandoah Valley of Virginia.

Image credit: Bigstock